Analysis

Can Bitcoin Break $100K? These Metrics Signal a New High

On-Chain Metrics Signal Bullish Momentum for Bitcoin

Author : Jim Haastrup

Key Insights

  • The flagship cryptocurrency has been stalling underneath the $100,000 mark for weeks.

  • However, strong metrics like miner accumulation and ETF inflows show that an upside is coming soon.

  • Institutional investors are leading the way in terms of accumulation compared to retailers. This indicates that the cycle is far from over.

  • CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin might hit a top of $146,000 in this cycle.

  • Throughout it all, MicroStrategy continues to accumulate cryptocurrency and is predicted to hold 4% of its supply by 2033.

Bitcoin's trek to the $100,000 mark has become a topic of heated debate lately, especially considering its consolidation between $90,000 and $99,500.

Metrics are starting to align, including solid market fundamentals, institutional interest, and macroeconomics. And the signs are positive.

Here are all the reasons why Bitcoin is in a good place fundamentally and why the $100,000+ mark could be next in line.

Bitcoin's Price Recovery and Market Decoupling

Bitcoin recently reclaimed the $95,000 level after dropping harshly to $91,000 on 26 November.

This marked a 5% recovery in less than two days and is a testament to the cryptocurrency's strength.

Bitcoin back above $95,000

Bitcoin’s recovery to $95,000 also showed a decoupling from traditional financial markets, especially the U.S. government bonds.

In essence, investors are starting to view Bitcoin increasingly as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

Moreso, as major world economies grapple with issues like inflation and interest rate fluctuations, Bitcoin's appeal as a scarce asset continues to rise.

For example, according to CNBC, France is currently grappling with a projected budget deficit of 6.1% in 2024, with its national debt up to 3%.

The Russian Ruble has also hit its lowest value since March 2022, and inflation was sky-high at 8.5% in October despite a sharp interest rate hike to 21%.

These challenges and more could make Bitcoin a favorable asset and influence its rise to $100,000 as investors seek safer alternatives.

Institutional Inflows and Miner Confidence Fuel Optimism

Much more than weakened world economies hold up Bitcoin's bullish outlook.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market is also showing renewed confidence among institutional investors, along with stronger HODLing from the miners.

Farside data shows that on 27 November, the ETF market saw net inflows of $103 million after two days of $548 million outflows.

The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows

These inflows mostly came from Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB funds, while BlackRock’s IBIT fund remained flat.

Data from Santiment also shows a 10-day decline in average miner outflows.

Ongoing decline In miner outflows

This means that the miners are HODLing instead of selling—a phenomenon that usually signals bullishness.

At the moment, miners’ revenue remains steady at 476 BTC on average, and their reduced selling adds a layer of stability to the market.

MicroStrategy's Role in Bitcoin Accumulation

MicroStrategy, one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders in the world, also continues to demonstrate confidence in the asset.

MicroStrategy in Bitcoin holdings

According to data from Saylor Tracker, the company currently holds a record 386,700 BTC and plans to increase its position through stock and debt offerings.

Interestingly, a report from Bernstein Research via CNBC predicts that MicroStrategy could control as much as 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply by 2033 if it continues accumulating at this rate.

A Shift in Market Behavior

Market trends also show that Bitcoin's bull cycle is far from over. According to analysts, investors of several cohorts are taking an interest in the flagship cryptocurrency, with institutional investors taking the lead.

CryptoQuant, for example, notes that retail investors have reduced their holdings by 41,000 BTC since October.

On the other hand, larger investors have added around 130,000 BTC during the same period.

The whales, in particular, also took in 16,000 $BTC worth $1.5 billion between 27 and 28 November.

Historically, bull markets often end when retail investors start to buy in aggressively.

This means that the end of the bull market might be far from over.

Price Targets and Long-Term Potential

Bitcoin hit the $99,655 zone in November and has been stalling beneath the $100,000 mark.

This inability to sustain the $99,000+ level has led analysts to speculate that a dip of up to 30% could be incoming for the cryptocurrency.

On the other hand, CryptoQuant’s data shows that Bitcoin’s realized price metric supports a possible top of $146,000 in this cycle.

Bitcoin to $146 million

Source: Twitter

In particular, the Profit and Loss (P&L) Index has yet to reach overvalued levels.

This suggests that the cryptocurrency's price has a lot of room to grow before reaching the cycle peak.

Overall, Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 is supported by several factors, including growing institutional interest, miner confidence, and the global macro economy.

While short-term corrections are part of the journey, on-chain data strongly suggests that the bull market is far from over.

Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information but will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.