Analysis

Ethereum Fees Plummet While Bitcoin Miners Struggle: What's Next?

Ethereum's transaction fees reached a 2-year low post-Dencun upgrade, boosting activity, while Bitcoin faces a downturn with miner revenue and increased BTC sales.

Adekunle Joshua

Key Insights

  • Both Ethereum and Bitcoin prices have dipped severely as of late.

  • In some positive news, Ethereum's transaction fees hit a 2-year low, likely due to its massive Layer 2 adoption after the Dencun upgrade

  • Conversely, the lower fees have led to a decline in Ethereum's burn rate, making it slightly inflationary.

  • Despite the low burn rates, the lower fees have seen Ethereum's active addresses spike to a bullish 3-month high

  • Conversely, Bitcoin's miner revenue per terahash per second is at a two-month low, which could be bearish for the cryptocurrency.

  • Bitcoin miners have sold a significant amount of BTC in the past month, which is not helping matters.

In terms of price action, Ethereum hasn’t been very impressive.

Prices across the crypto market haven't been very impressive over the last few months. Ethereum is currently down by around 3.5% over the last day and by around 5% over the last week.

However, something different is ongoing on-chain.

Ethereum's transaction fees have been plummeting for some time and have even hit fresh new lows as of this writing.

Here are all of the details to keep in mind, as well as what they might mean for the cryptocurrency's price.

Ethereum Price Tumbles

According to data from Dune Analytics, the Ethereum mainnet has experienced a massive drop in transaction fees, with this metric falling to an impressive 2.6 gwei.

The ongoing decline in Ethereum gas prices

The gas prices have risen again to around 4.69 Gwei at the time of writing, as shown by the snapshot above.

However, the $2.6 Gwei low comes due to a long-standing decline in gas fees and is now the lowest level seen since 2020.

But how did Ethereum achieve this impressive feat?

The answer might lie with the network's Layer 2 solutions like Optimism, Polygon, and Arbitrum.

Moreover, just a year ago, Dune Analytics data showed that the average gas price on Ethereum was around 15 Gwei, or even higher sometimes.

However, since the Dencun upgrade in March 2024, the network's gas fees have declined steadily, after an all-time high of 83 gwei on 5 March, just before the upgrade hit the mainnet on 13 March.

On more less-than-positive news, however, this decrease in Ethereum's gas fees has also led to a reduction in its burn rates, pushing this metric to a 12-month low, as shown by the chart below:

Ethereum’s average supply growth

This decrease has made the cryptocurrency slightly inflationary, with a yearly seven-day average supply growth of 0.56%.

On the flip side, according to Ali in a recent tweet, Ethereum saw its most significant spike in active addresses over the weekend in three months, reaching 617,170 active ETH addresses.

This puts significant bullish sentiment in favor of an Ethereum rebound between the $3,300 or $3,200 zone.

Bitcoin Miners On The Other Side

Amid the declining gas fees on Ethereum, the Bitcoin miners are in quite a fix.

According to data from Blockchain.com, the last Bitcoin halving from April 2024 has brought miner revenues per terahash per second (TH/s) to fresh new lows in the last two months.

The decline in Bitcoin’s miner revenue

The chart above shows a disturbing decrease in Bitcoin’s miner revenue (blue line) versus its price (black line).

The trend becomes even more worrying, considering that, according to 10x Research Founder Markus Thielen, Bitcoin miners have sold more than 30,000 BTC (all of which is worth about $2 billion) since June.

Moreover, this is the fastest offload spree in over a year.

"We can still envision higher Bitcoin prices likely capped by […] $122k post-halving," the analyst says. "Bitcoin could also end up in a dull, sideways 'summer' lull. This is usually when the enthusiasm for altcoins dies."

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