Whale and retail bettors raked millions from Trump's victory this week.
One of these bettors, with the username "Theo4," made $20.4 million in profit.
It turns out that "Theo4" is French. As a result, French gambling authorities are conducting a PolyMarket investigation.
As Polymarket grows in popularity, the odds of being the target of regulatory action will continue to mount.
In one of the biggest cash-outs in political betting history, PolyMarket's crypto whales raked in millions after betting on Donald Trump's election victory.
In a matter of months, the betting platform saw millions of dollars in bets placed on Harris and Trump.
With thousands of bettors significantly richer after Donald Trump’s win, let’s see the aftermath of the ordeal and the legal repercussions PolyMarket is now facing.
Right after Trump's election win, some of the biggest bettors on Polymarket raked in huge profits.
One of the most interesting of these bettors was the account “Theo4,” which saw an impressive $20.4 million profit.
Other bettors like “Fredi9999” and “zxgngl” saw gains of $15.6 million and $11 million respectively, according to insights from LookOnChain.
LookOnChain’s reports also show that ten whale accounts collectively invested over $70 million USDC in Trump in October.
The Associated Press officially announced Donald Trump as the winner of the U.S. elections on 6 November.
By then, Polymarket had handled $3.2 billion in bets for the event.
Despite its growth, Polymarket may soon face challenges in Europe.
According to reports, France's National Gaming Authority is investigating the platform over concerns with French gambling laws.
It so happens that “Theo4,” the aforementioned bettor who made $20.4 million from Trump bets, is French, according to The Big Whale.
If the country's national gaming Authority succeeds, PolyMarket and media outlets that link to the platform could be banned in France.
Still, while ANJ has the power to implement this ban, users can still access the betting platform through VPNs and a crypto wallet.
Interestingly, Polymarket isn’t facing these hurdles in France alone.
Worldwide agencies, including the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), began investigating the platform in 2021.
Most of these investigations stem from concerns that prediction markets could be open to manipulation.
Traders cashing out
These concerns have led to calls for stronger regulations to reduce the risk of insider trading and price manipulation.
Still, the prediction market industry is drawing in billions of dollars in bets—despite the regulatory questions.
This is mostly because PolyMarket is a decentralized platform that allows users to place bets without the need for intermediaries.
This appeals to bettors looking for minimal barriers to entry.
Ultimately, worldwide agencies still argue that prediction markets need more oversight to protect users.
In the face of these challenges, Polymarket's success shows the increasing influence of defi in prediction markets.
PolyMarket saw over $294 million in trading volume on 5 November alone as participants bet on election outcomes.
For now, Polymarket remains under the company’s control—even though there are hints that it may soon become fully decentralized after a token launch.
Despite the controversies, Polymarket has turned up several accurate predictions.
Some of these include Biden's decision to step back from the race and Trump's election win.
As these prediction markets grow in popularity, they may face even more regulatory pressure—especially as their predictions intersect with real-world events.
Through it all, platforms like PolyMarket show how merging defi and politics can be lucrative for everyone.
At the time of writing, the Trump versus Harris market closed at $3.64 billion in volume, with $1.5 billion going to Trump.
Trust the market, not the polls.
$1 billion worth of volume went to Harris, and $72 million went to former Democrat candidate Joe Biden.
Other major names that investors cashed in from included Michelle Obama with $153 million, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with $141 million and even American rapper Kanye West with $9 million.
Trump’s odds of winning the elections peaked at 71.5% after the first assassination attempt in July.
This is compared to Harris, who had her highest chance of winning in August at 54%.
Other ongoing bets show Trump as only 95% likely to be inaugurated as President on 20 January 2025.
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