Former Alameda Research CEO and Bankman-Fried’s girlfriend, Caroline Ellison is set to be sentenced this week at 3:00 ET in New York.
Ellison is expected to receive a lighter sentence, considering her cooperation with federal authorities and testimony against SBF.
Polymarket bettors believe she has a 41% chance of escaping prison time.
Bankman-Fried has filed an appeal of his 25-year sentence and is seeking a new legal process under a new judge.
The FTX collapse happened in late 2022—nearly two years ago.
The crashed cryptocurrencies across the market have recovered so far, and a great deal of normalcy has returned.
Or has it?
The effects of one of the biggest crashes the industry has ever seen, continue to ripple through the market even after more than 20 months.
This time around, another key player in the case is set to face justice for her role in the entire scheme.
Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research and close associate of Sam Bankman-Fried is set to be sentenced for her role in the crash of the multi-billion-dollar empire this week.
The latest happenings mark a major turn in the ongoing saga that has continued to shock the industry even years after.
Ellison was no stranger to the world of finance and crypto. She was a highly skilled mathematician who graduated from Stanford University with a Bachelor's degree in Math.
She worked at Jane Street on the equities desk as a trader, before joining and becoming the CEO of Alameda Research in 2018.
Alameda Research, in this case, was a trading firm founded by Bankman-Fried and Tara Mac Aulay in 2017.
Initially, she served as co-CEO with Sam Trabucco, but eventually took full responsibility for the firm.
This gave her a position at the heart of FTX’s operations—which is where her troubles began.
Her relationship with Bankman-Fried eventually became more than a professional one, as she became his confidant and romantic partner.
Before long, Ellison had become fully entangled in both the successes and failures of both Alameda and FTX.
Under instruction from Bankman-Fried, the former Alameda CEO became a key actor in borrowing billions of dollars in customer funds from FTX’s accounts.
These were then used to cover the company's trading losses.
One loss led to another, one loan became two and soon over $8 billion in customer funds went missing when FTX collapsed in late 2022.
Soon after FTX crashed, Ellison became a star witness in the ongoing investigation against Bankman-Fried.
She took a plea deal from federal authorities and testified against her former boss in exchange for a lighter sentence.
This move has now placed her at the center of one of the wildest crypto scandals in the last decade.
Months after Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for his role in the scheme, Ellison’s hearing has been scheduled for Tuesday, 24 September 2024 at 3 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. UST).
The sentencing is set to take place in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
Like Bankman-Fried’s, her charges are severe and include two counts each of wire fraud and conspiracy to commit said crime.
She also faces more counts related to money laundering, commodities fraud and securities fraud.
All of these combined, carry a total sentence of around 110 years in prison—more than a century.
However, considering how the main perpetrator of the crime only got 25 years in prison, it is unlikely that Ellison spends this long behind bars—especially considering her cooperation with the FEDs.
Despite the seriousness of the charges, Ellison's plea deal in 2022 has changed the direction of things in the ongoing case.
Ellison, by agreeing to testify against her former boss, has limited her exposure to the scandal with prosecutors praising her work as a witness.
Instead of prison time like Bankman-Fried got, Ellison’s lawyers are instead pushing for a supervised release.
In essence, Ellison might be able to skip jail altogether if her legal team gets their way.
It is also interesting to note that while in Bankman-Fried’s case, prosecutors recommended a 125-year prison sentence, nothing of the sort has been recommended yet for Ellison.
All of this considered the former Alameda boss might receive leniency.
Speculators are also watching the ongoing saga on PolyMarket which now shows that Ellison has a 41% chance of not going to prison.
Moreover, they expect an 18% chance of less than 11 months and only 5% of bettors expect her to serve more than five years.
Polymarket odds of sentencing
Overall, the outcome of the incoming sentence will not only affect her fate but will also contribute to the larger narrative.
Bankman-Fried on the other hand, has appealed the 25-year sentence under claims that he was denied a fair trial.
“He was presumed guilty before being charged,” according to his lawyers in an appeal brief.
"A very different picture is emerging. FTX was never insolvent and in fact, had assets worth billions to repay its customers," they said.
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