Key Insights:
Donald Trump leads by 66.7% on Polymarket's largest betting arena ($2.6 billion), while Kamala Harris trails at 33.5%.
However, another smaller betting market ($489 mn) on the same platform shows Kamala Harris to lead at 59%.
A third prediction market also shows that Republicans are 48% likely to sweep this election.
Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris on Polymarket
Data from the largest Polymarket betting arena shows that Trump's odds for a second-term presidency could be around 66.7%, indicating a clear win.
A presidency led by Trump could be highly beneficial for the crypto markets because of the following election promises.
During the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Trump said he aims to fire Gary Gensler.
He promised a Bitcoin reserve to back the US dollar at the same conference.
Trump had also promised a fair regulation of crypto and the end of what he called a "Purge" in the markets.
Kamala Harris, who at one point led with 52% odds, failed to retain the lead and fell to 33.5% in the largest betting market on the platform.
The current series of investigations by the SEC into the crypto markets could be a major reason for this fall. This is the scenario despite major tech companies like Google, Meta, and others endorsing her. Further, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, too, has endorsed Harris and even donated to her campaign.
Ripple vs the SEC case is currently considered a mascot of the agency's undue investigations into crypto companies.
US Elections Odds in Polymarket
There are currently three major betting markets on Polymarket, with total bets over $3.2 billion. All of them are still open and will remain so until the results are declared.
The first market, "Presidential Election Winner," clearly favors Trump at 66.7%, while Harris's odds are at 33.5%. Although other possibilities are listed on the platform, they seem insignificant. This market is also the largest, with over $2.6 billion in user bets.
The second market is smaller at $489 million but still accounts for significant bets. It is titled "Popular Vote Winner," which shows who would win more votes. This shows the complete opposite of the first market, i.e., Kamala Harris has winning odds of 59%, and Donald Trump has only 41% odds.
The third market is much smaller at $48 million and revolves around which party could win the Presidency, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
There are 48% odds that next week, Republicans could sweep the elections.
Also, there is a 21% odds that the president might be a Democrat in a Democrat-led House of Representatives, but the Senate remains Republican.
The third situation is that the President and Senate are Republicans, while the Democrats could remain the majority in the House of Representatives.
Whatever the betting platforms like Polymarket might show, we still need to remember that these election markets do not truly represent the views of real voters on the ground. Betting platforms could only indicate that a certain trend might be prevalent in the markets.
We have found three reasons why Polymarket could prove wrong. This data might fail because it takes the views of a much smaller population than that votes in the elections. Further, the users on Polymarket might not be as diverse as the voters. Also, users on the platform are leaning more towards crypto. Polymarket is a betting platform on Ethereum.
Coming to the outcomes, a Trump win could ensure more transparency in the regulation process. Further, Trump has promised to fire the current SEC Chairman, Gary Gensler, a controversial figure in the crypto markets. Finally, since Trump owns many crypto businesses, his administration could be less harsh than the current regime.
On the other hand, a win by Kamala Harris could ensure Gary Gensler's continuation until April 2026, when he is set to end his tenure.
Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information but will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.