The US presidential elections are now less than a month away, on 5 November.
Standard Chartered's lead analyst, Geoff Kendrick, expects a Bitcoin boom to $125,000 if Trump and the Republicans take the majority.
While crypto will still boom under Harris, Kendrick expects a $75,000 Bitcoin price by year-end if the Democrats win.
Hashkey Capital expects an altcoin season to kick off with a Bitcoin break above $80,000.
Analysts like James Check and Matthew Hyland warn that the crypto boom might not follow the regular playbook this time.
2024 is drawing to a close, and the US presidential election inches closer with every passing second.
This only means one thing: the crypto market is about to get heated!
Standard Chartered Bank has just set a striking Bitcoin price target of $125,000 if Trump and the Republicans secure dominance in Congress after the 5 November elections.
According to Geoff Kendrick, one of the bank's analysts, the outcome of this presidential race will significantly shape the crypto market's trajectory.
Here’s how these outcomes could push or pull Bitcoin, and here’s what’s next for the altcoins if Bitcoin follows through:
In a recent note this week, Kendrick is optimistic about Bitcoin's future either way.
However, he is even more optimistic if the Republican party secures the congressional majority.
He believes that Bitcoin will skyrocket to $73,000 by election day on 5 November.
Kendrick also expects a 4% price boost if former president Donald Trump secures the presidential seat.
Moreover, Bitcoin should see an additional 10% price increase shortly after.
In the note to investors, Kendrick explained, "Our base case is that Bitcoin will rise to around $73,000 by Election Day [in the event of a Trump win]. This is slightly below the approximate $73,800 all-time high recorded in March."
Kendrick's position isn't isolated. According to the most recent PolyMarket odds, Donald Trump's odds of winning the presidential elections now sit at 63.7% after dropping from an all-time high of 75%.
Presidential odds for Donald Trump
On the other hand, RealClearPolitics odds give Trump the upper hand with a 59% chance of victory.
If Trump wins, this expected boom in crypto aligns with the crypto community's generally favorable outlook on his crypto stance.
Essentially, the "Trump for crypto good, Kamala for crypto bad" narrative is clearly at play.
Notable members of the crypto community like Ripple Co-founder Chris Larsen, however, stand as the exception.
Larsen recently donated a staggering $11 million worth of XRP to Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign.
Should Harris take the presidential seat, Kendrick still expects Bitcoin to rise.
However, the cryptocurrency will likely lag below expectations at around $75,000 by year-end.
Put simply, the market expects more support from a republican majority than a democratic one.
While Bitcoin is rallying, an altcoin season could follow, according to crypto investment firm Hashkey Capital.
According to a recent report released by the firm on 23 October, an alt season could kick off if Bitcoin trades at $80,000 or higher.
For some more context, the firm believes that an additional 20% rally in Bitcoin from its current $67,600 could unlock an altcoin boom.
Remember that Hashkey Capital also believes that Bitcoin's dominance must reach between 62% and 70% of the crypto market’s share.
This metric sits at around 58% at the time of writing, as illustrated.
Bitcoin’s dominance and heatmap
Keep in mind that while Bitcoin "isn't quite there yet," this dominance level sits at its highest in three and a half years.
The altcoin season index shows that the market is closer to a Bitcoin season than to an altcoin season.
The Bitcoin season index
With this in mind, Michael van de Poppe, the founder of MN Trading Capital, recently mentioned that an altcoin season may be "overdue."
"This is the longest bear market we've experienced," he said, noting that it is longer than even the 2014 - 2016 period.
Not everyone expects the same playbook, though. The memecoin sector has been booming lately (which is one of the major signs of an incoming altcoin season).
Some of the biggest gainers have been the lesser known memecoins in the space like Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) which rose over 160% to $0.74.
Throughout, though, many analysts have voiced concerns about the dangers of hype and being overly bullish.
Matthew Hyland, for example, mentioned in a recent tweet that the crypto market's sentiment might not be as bullish as people think.
According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Google searches for "Bitcoin" have also plummeted to a one-year low despite the hype.
Lead Glassnode analyst James Check also mentioned in a recent newsletter that the altcoin season might not happen as expected.
This might result from crypto traders simply jumping in on the market and buying into the hype.
Regardless of how things unfold, the final quarters of halving years typically bring a lot of bullish volatility for Bitcoin and the general crypto market.
Crypto is set to explode upwards, sooner or later.
Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information but will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.