GSR Markets, a top market maker, predicts a 900% increase for Solana if a spot ETF is approved in the U.S.
The prediction assumes Solana can capture between 2% and 15% of the inflows Bitcoin ETFs have seen.
GSR Markets offers a "blue sky", "baseline", and "bear" case scenario, with price increases on Solana ranging from 140% to 900%.
Gary Gensler's stance on Solana as a security in the Coinbase/Binance lawsuits makes approval difficult.
Analysts believe a new administration and SEC leadership could be more open to Solana ETFs.
The crypto industry has been abuzz for weeks with the upcoming launch of spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S.
However, while the market remains preoccupied, what about a spot Solana ETF?
According to insights from GSR Markets, Solana ETF approval in the U.S. can lead to a massive surge in the cryptocurrency's price.
Speaking of “upwards”, by how much can Solana really go?
Will there ever be a day Solana will go toe-to-toe with Ethereum?
Let’s see what GSR Markets thinks.
GSR Markets released a report this week, detailing what might happen to Solana if a spot ETF gets approved.
The market maker says that Solana might be poised to increase by as much as 900% under what it calls a “blue sky” scenario.
"Solana has cemented itself as part of crypto's Big Three. And with the others having or on the cusp of a spot ETF, not only is it likely just a matter of time before Solana gets one too, but also the impact on SOL just might be the largest yet."
This prediction for Solana assumes that Solana can capture around 14% of the inflows the spt Bitcoin ETFs have managed since their launch in January.
Considering the above, the spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold about $15 billion worth of assets.
If GSR Markets’ scenario plays out, Solana is expected to rally from its current price of $149 to a staggering $1,320, with its market cap reaching $614 billion.
While the “blue sky” scenario is highly notable, GSR Markets acknowledges the need for conservative views.
According to the report, GSR Markets notes that there might be a "bear" scenario in which these ETFs only capture around 2% of Bitcoin’s flows.
Solana’s possible price impact
If this happens, Solana’s price will only increase by around 140%, putting it at around the same price as its all-time high, or just above $300.
However, when it comes to a “midpoint” or “baseline” scenario, the spot Solana ETFs might only capture around 5% of the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, allowing the price of $SOL to more than quadruple, or increase by 340%.
Overall, the outcomes for Solana remain bullish regardless if we ever see a spot for Solana ETF approval.
Despite these highly bullish predictions, the spot Solana ETFs might face some rocky waters in the U.S. regulatory landscape.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas and other experts, a change in the U.S. administration and even its presidency could be a major driving factor for the approval of Solana (and many other kinds) of ETFs.
"If [there is a] change at POTUS, I think anything [is] possible. Just imagine Hester Peirce (or someone like that) running the SEC." Balchunas said in a recent X post.
Balchunas made this statement after VanEck surprised investors by filing for a spot Solana ETF on 27 June, following a similar filing by 3iQ in Canada.
So far, the current SEC Chair, Gary Gensler, has openly labelled Solana token as a security in its lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, making it significantly more challenging for the market to see Solana ETFs anytime soon.
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