Assessing the Odds of Bitcoin Price Surpassing $30K

Assessing the Odds of Bitcoin Price Surpassing $30K

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin price has risen by more than 70% this year but is currently struggling at around $30,000
  • If BTC bulls manage to keep price above $25,500, another retest of the $30,000 resistance is imminent
  • If the bears push Bitcoin below $25,500, the next target would be $20,300
  • Binance's woes may be a big hindrance to Bitcoin's breakout

After the FOMC meeting last week, several developments occurred. Despite the unchanged FED rate, Bitcoin prices experienced significant volatility immediately after the meeting. However, the BTC price remained stable, currently trading up by a mere 0.81% at $26,345

The first quarter of 2023 has been a bullish one for BTC. The cryptocurrency has risen by more than 70% since the start of the year and is showing increasing signs that bullish sentiment is back in the market.

However, judging by the sudden quietness of the cryptocurrency after a whole week of non-stop bullishness, investors are starting to wonder what comes next for BTC around the $30,000 zone.

Bitcoin Price So Far

Earlier in March, the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a complaint against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, for trading violations

This news came to light just as BTC was about to break through the $30,000 zone, and somewhat dragged down the markets.

However, the decline in BTC isn't so significant, and the cryptocurrency has returned to $28,900 after a brief decline to $26,600.

This article will examine the price action of the flagship cryptocurrency, and assess its chances of breaking through the $30,000 zone in the coming days/weeks.

Bitcoin In The Charts

Everything from the moving averages to the RSI and the price action on Bitcoin's charts shows that the bulls are currently in control of the market.

<em>Chart showing Bitcoin price action</em>
Chart showing Bitcoin price action

Judging by how quickly the bulls regained control of the price after the rejection from $29,000, it is clear that they mean business, and will attempt to keep the price of the cryptocurrency above $25,000.

If the bulls manage to keep the price of the cryptocurrency buoyant like this, another retest of the $30,000 resistance is imminent and may usher in a breakout that takes the price of Bitcoin above $30,000 and beyond.

How Likely Is BTC To Break $30,000?

The first thing to note is that if a break above $30,000 happens, the next target zones are $32,000 – $35,000. If enough pressure is applied by BTC bulls, these price zones may be the gateway to a $40,000 Bitcoin.

So how likely is this breakout to happen?

First of all, for the bears to make sure that this breakout does not happen, they have to push the price of the cryptocurrency below the (purple) 20-day exponential moving average (which is currently around $26,300).

After a break below this level, the bears still have to push the cryptocurrency into a break below the $25,250 support (blue horizontal line below).

<em>Chart showing Bitcoin 20-day EMA</em>
Chart showing Bitcoin 20-day EMA

This leaves some wiggle room for the bulls and works to their advantage. Bitcoin may indeed break through $29,000, hit $30,000 and even rally higher.

However, keep in mind that if the bears succeed in pushing the price below these key levels, the next target would be a drop to the 200-day simple moving average (around $20,300).

Bitcoin Exchange Outflow Paints Different Picture

After the challenges Binance had with the CFTC and the subsequent Bitcoin correction, CryptoQuant notes that the crypto exchange is starting to see massive withdrawals.

<em>Chart showing Binance's Bitcoin Withdrawals</em>
Chart showing Binance's Bitcoin Withdrawals

After Binance was sued by the US CFTC on Monday, investors have withdrawn about $1.6 billion worth of Bitcoin, as per data from Nansen.

CryptoQuant further notes that Binance is currently seeing daily netflows of  around -4,505 BTC.

According to Nansen, since the lawsuit, Binance has seen $1.6 billion in total withdrawals and $852 million in the last 24 hours, an increase over the $385 million per day average over the previous two weeks.

The silver lining, according to Martin Lee, a research analyst at Nansen, is that the withdrawals were greater than typical but still not as high as on December 13, when investors withdrew $3 billion from Binance due to their concerns over Binance's reserve situation.

Overall, if the question is "Will Bitcoin break through $30,000"? The answer is yes.

However, nobody knows for sure, how or when this will happen.

Disclaimer: Voice of crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.

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