BTC Price Analysis: What To Expect From Bitcoin In November 2023 From A Historical Standpoint

BTC Price Analysis: What To Expect From Bitcoin In November 2023 From A Historical Standpoint

Key Insights

  • Bitcoin price is still at a crossroads, with low volatility and a lack of price direction, however, things can turn in the favor of bulls anytime.
  • Octobers have been historically bullish for Bitcoin, while Novembers have had extremes of both positive and negative returns.
  • There is an open CME gap of around $20,800, which some traders believe will eventually be filled.
  • The bulls need to push Bitcoin above $35,000 to trigger a significant rally.
  • The daily RSI is currently showing overbought conditions, making it less likely that a breakout will occur in the immediate future.

Bitcoin is at a very important crossroads at the time of writing.

According to data from TradingView and CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin currently trades at about $34,300 after a minor price rejection from $35,000.

Bitcoin is currently suffering from low volatility and has been floating between $34,000 and $39,000 for the past few days.

Bitcoin's price details | Source: <a href='' target='_blank' rel='noreferrer noopener'><u>CoinMarketCap</u></a>
Bitcoin's price details | Source: CoinMarketCap

However, this lack of price direction is not without its reasons.

The cryptocurrency's weekly and monthly candle closes now coincide, and are expected to hit anytime from now.

Let's go over what to expect from Bitcoin in November 2023.

"Uptober" Is Over: What Do We Want From November?

Unlike Octobers which are very bullish months for Bitcoin historically, Novembers have extremes of both scenarios.

Bitcoin monthly returns
Bitcoin monthly returns

Take a look at the snapshot above.

Octobers have been clearly bullish since 2013 and only had price declines about twice. Once in 2018, and another time in 2014.

On the other hand, November may go as high as gaining 42% in a single month (as we can see in 2020), to losing as much as 36% in the same timeframe (as we can see in 2018).

Judging by this, it is hard to say how Bitcoin might behave in November 2023.

However, we do know the average price movement for Bitcoin since 2014 has been bullish, with an average November rally of about 6% every year.

Trouble In Bitcoin Paradise: Open CME Gap Around $20,800

If you didn't know what a CME (or Chicago Mercantile Exchange)  gap is, they generally occur when there is a significant difference between the closing price of Bitcoin futures on a Friday, and the opening price on a Monday.

Generally, traders believe that these gaps "always" get filled.

And as it turns out, as of October 2023, a notable gap was formed around $20,800. This gap was created back at the beginning of the year when Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 and then surged.

Bitcoin CME gap history
Bitcoin CME gap history

Naturally, this paints a strongly bearish picture for Bitcoin. This is because if CME gaps always get filled, then it means that we should expect a price decline down to $20,800.

However, you should also know that filling CME gaps doesn't always happen.

For example, in a previous cycle, Bitcoin bottomed near $3000 and opened the CME gap at $3500.

Despite people's expectations (plus a Black Swan event), the gap was never filled as the price went into the Bull Market.

Now, however, @thescalpingpro on Twitter says that if the cycle continues without any unexpected events, the $20,800 gap might stay unfilled, just like the $3500 gap of the previous cycle.

A Good Way To Look At BTC Price

In the charts, we can see that after Bitcoin broke through the $32,000 resistance, the bears stood their ground firmly around $35,000 (which is validated by the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels).

Bitcoin price action
Bitcoin price action

Nevertheless, if the bulls will have any hope of pushing Bitcoin into a significant rally to $42,000 or higher, they first have to push Bitcoin into a breakout above the $35,000 zone.

Timing also plays an important role in how the bears do this. If Bitcoin's weekly AND monthly candlesticks close above $35,280, the bulls now have a fair chance of accomplishing this feat.

Bitcoin RSI
Bitcoin RSI

Keep in mind, however, that the daily RSI is currently showing overbought conditions, making it ever more improbable for this breakout to occur.

Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.

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