This Is Your Last Chance To Buy Bitcoin Before The Halving Rally, Says Analyst Rekt Capital

The next Bitcoin halving is happening this April, less than 80 days away
This Is Your Last Chance To Buy Bitcoin Before The Halving Rally, Says Analyst Rekt Capital

Key Insights

  • The next Bitcoin halving is happening this April, less than 80 days away
  • Rekt Capital identifies five stages of Bitcoin's price around the halving: pre-halving retrace, rally, retrace, boring period, and parabolic uptrend.
  • Bitcoin's 18% drop in January might be a sign that Rekt Capital is right to some degree.
  • Rekt Capital believes that investors have a two-week window before the pre-halving rally drives prices up.
  • The analyst also warns that this method is not foolproof and that other factors can influence the price of Bitcoin.

The much-hyped Bitcoin halving is scheduled to happen sometime around April this year, which according to NiceHash, is less than 80 days away:

The Bitcoin halving countdown | Source: <a href='' target='_blank' rel='noreferrer noopener'><u>NiceHash</u></a>
The Bitcoin halving countdown | Source: NiceHash

However, according to a new tweet from crypto analyst and trader, Rekt Capital, Bitcoin investors might have a much shorter timeframe left to bag some Bitcoin.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin is only weeks from one of its major bullish phases, and time is running out.

The Five Stages of Bitcoin Halving

The analyst's outlook on Bitcoin before the halving is an interesting one.

According to a recent post on X, Rekt Capital told all 349,000 of his that Bitcoin halvings usually come in five stages.

He went further to explain how each of these stages affects the price of the cryptocurrency, and his conclusions are quite interesting.

 To the uninitiated, the "Bitcoin halving" is an event that happens once every four years.

When it does, it cuts the rewards given to Bitcoin miners for their work by half.

These "block rewards" are expected to be cut from 6.25 Bitcoin per block mined, to around 3.125 Bitcoin per block.

Rekt Capital, on the one hand, stated that this event comes in five stages:

1. The Pre-halving retrace

According to the analyst, the pre-halving retrace is a period when the price of Bitcoin dips severely, several months before the actual halving event.

According to Rekt Capital, this dip usually turns out to be one of the best times to buy some Bitcoin before the halving.

Rekt Capital says that In January, Bitcoin has already completed an 18% decline in January alone, suggesting that this stage may have already happened.

A Bitcoin pre-halving retrace
A Bitcoin pre-halving retrace

A good example of a pre-halving retrace is shown above, when Bitcoin declined by 65%, right before the May 2022 halving.

2. The Pre-halving rally

This is a period of strong upward price momentum that happens right around 60 days before the halving event.

According to Rekt Capital, this stage is usually driven by the shorter-term traders who try to buy as much Bitcoin as they can before the halving.

However, as expected from these short term traders, they tend to sell the news right after the halving, which leads us to the next stage.

3.  The Pre-halving Retrace

According to Rekt Capital, the price of Bitcoin declines moderately right around this stage.

This stage hits around three weeks before the halving and is caused by the profit-taking and the fear of missing out (FOMO) among traders who expect Bitcoin to explode upwards before the halving.

However, reality soon dawns on these investors causing a short-lived experience and leading to the next stage.

4. The Post-halving boring period

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin's price action becomes "boring".

The volatility on the cryptocurrency tanks, causing sideways movement that can carry on until several months after the halving.

During this stage, investors who expected a lot more drama and fanfare in terms of price action after the halving get bored and frustrated.

At the same time, Bitcoin takes this opportunity to consolidate as the long-term holders accumulate more Bitcoin for the next stage.

5. The Post-halving parabolic uptrend

This period is one of the most anticipated phases in the crypto market.

During his phase, everything including trading volumes, price and volatility spikes after the halving period.

According to Rekt Capital, this phase is usually fueled by several factors including increased adoption, media attention, institutional demand, and network effects.

This stage also turns out to be one of the riskiest phases when it comes to Bitcoin because it always leads to the next bearish bloodbath.

The 5 halving stages
The 5 halving stages

The Two-Week Window to Buy Bitcoin

According to Rekt Capital, based on the above analyses, investors might have only a two-week window left to buy Bitcoin at what he calls "bargain prices" before the pre-halving rally (stage 2) begins.

Also keep in mind that if any more retracements occur within this period, Rekt Capital thinks that it might be one of the best chances to buy some Bitcoin before the halving.

"In any case, there is now a rapidly shrinking 14-day window where if Bitcoin is to perform another pullback… It should do over the next two weeks, between now and the Pre-Halving rally…"

Another thing to keep in mind is that Rekt Capital warns that this model is not 100% foolproof and that several other factors can influence how Bitcoin performs before, during and after the halving.

Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.

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