Odds of Bitcoin (BTC) Price Hitting $30K

Odds of Bitcoin (BTC) Price Hitting $30K

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin looks very good in terms of price from a long-term perspective
  • Bitcoin's long-term bears may be getting REKT soon, according to its Long/Short Liquidation history
  • The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator on Bitcoin shows that March 2023 may be the start of a new cycle
  • Bitcoin may close above many significant price bands for the first time in more than 250 days
  • Bitcoin may be in for a short-term pullback to $26,000

Over the last few days the price action of Bitcoin has been impressive, to say the least, despite the macro economic uncertainties. The cryptocurrency briefly tasted a dip to levels below $20,000 for the first time since the FTX crash in November 2022.

However, Bitcoin price got right back up in a matter of days and is doing pretty well for the most part of it.

Despite the banking crises that riddled March 2023, Bitcoin appears to be on a serious mission to hit $30,000 as soon as possible.

Investors and traders alike, are more interested in the short and long-term futures of the cryptocurrency as Easter approaches.

So, how is Bitcoin doing at the moment, how has it been doing, and how far up can the flagship cryptocurrency soar before 7 April?

Bitcoin's Price Action – From The Most Obvious Sources

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin's price action has been highly impressive. BTC price seems to be soaring not just in comparison to traditional assets and the stock market but also to other cryptocurrencies.

<em>Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action </em>
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action 

According CoinMarketCap data BTC has had a spectacular week, and seemed to be having a great day as well.

Bitcoin has moved to the upside by 4.7% over the last day, and by a very impressive 28% over the last seven, considering the cryptocurrency's market cap.

According to TradingView's technical analysis pane, BTC also looks good from several other perspectives.

<em>Snapshot showing the technical analysis of BTC/USD</em>
Snapshot showing the technical analysis of BTC/USD

The snapshot above shows TradingView's estimate of the BTC/USD pair from a weekly perspective. This analysis pane provides a summary of Bitcoin based on the most popular technical indicators, such as Moving Averages, Oscillators and Pivots.

According to estimates, Bitcoin price looked bullish even from a weekly perspective.

The cryptocurrency is neutral according to the chart oscillators (RSI, stochastic, etc), a very strong buy according to the moving averages, and a fairly strong buy, in summary.

As far as Bitcoin price action goes, Easter looks pretty good.

Bitcoin Short Positions Getting REKT Soon

This week, the blockchain and crypto data aggregation platform, CryptoQuant also shared a few thoughts on Bitcoin.

According to a blogpost shared by the platform via Twitter on 19 March, the current state of the market shows that "Bitcoin short positions are getting REKT as the price breaks new highs, while long liquidations stay within the normal range."

<em>Chart showing Bitcoin's estimated range ratio</em>
Chart showing Bitcoin's estimated range ratio

CryptoQuant mentioned in the blogpost, that the expected leverage ratio for BTC-margined Bitcoin futures has decreased significantly despite recent rallies. A more cautious attitude among traders shows that latecomers who frequently employ high leverage are not yet significantly influencing the market.

The data aggregation platform also added that Long/Short Liquidations are another crucial measure to take into account because they shed light on market mood. While Bitcoin was trading at roughly $15,500 in October 2022, we noticed a dryness in short liquidations.

<em>Chart showing Bitcoin's historical long liquidations</em>
Chart showing Bitcoin's historical long liquidations

But, as the price began to rise quickly, we noticed $80 million in short liquidations at the beginning of 2023, which showed how many traders were short.

With $80 million in Short liquidations occurring after the break of the $26,000 price threshold, we are currently observing a similar trend, CryptoQuant mentioned.

<em>Chart showing Bitcoin's historical short liquidations</em>
Chart showing Bitcoin's historical short liquidations

The absence of significantly extended liquidations in the $25–$30 million range is noteworthy. We can better understand market sentiment and prospective price fluctuations as we track this statistic.

Predicting Market Cycles Through NUPL

The NUPL or "Net Unrealized Profit/Loss" is an important indicator for looking at the difference between Unrealized Profit and Unrealized Loss to determine whether the network as a whole is currently in a state of profit or loss.

According to another blogpost by CryptoQuant, When the NUPL value of a network is less than or equal to 0, accumulation starts. Previous quotes indicate that the dispersion starts when NUPL starts to exceed a particular value.

<em>Chart showing Bitcoin's NUPL distribution</em>
Chart showing Bitcoin's NUPL distribution

When the value of NUPL MA100 is less than 0, accumulation begins. When NUPL MA100 is greater than 0.6, the distribution repeats (above 0.655 since 2017).

CryptoQuant ended the blogpost with the question: "Is it reasonable to claim that March 2023 is the start of the fourth cycle, counting from the moment the NUPL indicator starts to work?"

Bitcoin Breaks Support Price Bands Ahead of Weekly Close

Another blogpost by an analyst at CryptoQuant also mentioned that a very significant weekly close is coming up. This means that the price of Bitcoin will close above many significant price bands for the first time in more than 250 days.

This blogpost mentions these price bands as:

  • Long-Term Holder Realized Price (green)
  • 200 Weekly Moving Average (yellow)
  • Short-Term Holder Realized Price (red)
  • Adjusted Realized Price (purple)

According to the analyst, for more than 250 days, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated below the majority of these ranges. The FTX crash also contributed to this.

<em>Chart showing Bitcoin's significant price bands</em>
Chart showing Bitcoin's significant price bands

It's critical that Bitcoin continue to rise above these levels since it offers a bullish outlook for the upcoming weeks and a clear point of invalidation, which would be a return down below these Floor Bands.

Possible Sell Signal On Bitcoin As Call Options Hoard Bitcoin

According to a tweet from crypto and blockchain journalist, Colin Wu on Twitter, the upcoming FOMC  results have had a big impact on trader sentiment.

As illustrated by the snapshot above, weekly options have significantly higher Implied Volatility than others.

Wu mentions that at present, 2,200 call options are hoarding Bitcoin with an exercise price of 29,000. He also added that this figure is close to the monthly option position.

Meanwhile, another analyst on Twitter has something slightly "against the trend" to say about Bitcoin.

This analyst, known simply as Ali in a tweet to all 2.8k of his followers, cited the TD Sequential indicator as the source of his-less-than-bullish prediction for the flagship cryptocurrency.

According to the first sentence in Ali's tweet, "The TD Sequential presents a sell signal on $BTC 1D chart".

Ali, according to his analyses, expects that Bitcoin may be on its way to a 1 to 4 candlesticks correction, which may push the cryptocurrency below the $27,000 support.

This decline may then trigger a dip to the $26,000-$25,300 zone.

In conclusion, Ali added that Bitcoin must close above $28,200 to invalidate the sell signal and jump to $29,600 as expected.

Bitcoin In The Charts

Bitcoin inches closer to the major resistance around the $30,000 zone, and all eyes are on the flagship cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin, after breaking through the  $25,150 zone, has managed to stay on track over the last few days.

However, the cryptocurrency's bullish momentum appears to be dwindling on the daily chart, as it continues to print shorter green candles.

Chart showing the price action of Bitcoin
Chart showing the price action of Bitcoin

At the same time, the chart and indicators on the daily timeframe show that the Bitcoin bulls are still in charge.

According to the Bolinger bands on the daily chart, the volatility of Bitcoin is still very high as evidenced by the widening bands.

<em>Chart showing the Bollinger bands and RSI on Bitcoin</em>
Chart showing the Bollinger bands and RSI on Bitcoin

Bitcoin may be in for some strong movement to the upside as expected or may be primed for a short-term pullback to the $26,000 zone as predicted by Ali above.

<em>Chart showing the possible price movement on Bitcoin</em>
Chart showing the possible price movement on Bitcoin

Judging by the RSI's crossover into the oversold zone (72.5), the short-term perspective for the cryptocurrency may favour the aforementioned pullback.

In all, it might be a good time to take profits and go back to observing the market's behaviour over the next few days.

Disclaimer: Voice of crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.

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