According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, the current Bitcoin bull run could peak around October.
U.S. Congress will hold "Crypto Week" between July 14-18, 2025, to discuss three major bills.
While some analysts predict a "cycle extension" based on Bitcoin's correlation with the M2 Money Supply, Rekt Capital isn’t convinced.
Bitcoin is currently trading near its all-time high of $111,970, with a 3.5% increase over the last 30 days.
Institutional investors like Standard Chartered and Bernstein are increasingly calling for a cycle extension and year-end targets like $200,000 or $250,000.
The crypto world is buzzing with optimism as Bitcoin flirts with its all-time high.
Yet despite the optimism, one analyst is warning investors to be cautious. According to this analyst, the current bull run might be nearing its end.
In a recent analysis, crypto market commentator Rekt Capital predicted that Bitcoin’s rally could start to fade in the next two to three months.
This will happen, especially if it continues to follow the same pattern seen during its 2020 cycle.
Here are a few details from his analysis and what to expect from the market before the end of the year.
According to Rekt Capital, the 550-day period after a Bitcoin halving has historically counted as a market peak.
When this logic is applied to the current cycle, which began with the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin could top out around October.
“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt said.
According to the analyst, traders should not overlook time-tested principles like the halving cycle.
The timing of this debate is heating up, especially as the U.S. enters a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency regulation.
Reportedly, between July 14 and 18, Congress will hold several discussions dubbed “Crypto Week,” where three major bills could decide the future of the industry.
The first is the GENIUS Act, which is focused on regulating stablecoins by integrating them into the trad-fi system.
Three incoming bills in the US
This bill was recently passed by the Senate and is expected to clear the House and become law soon.
The second is the CLARITY Act, which is designed to eliminate confusion around whether cryptocurrencies are securities or commodities.
This bill is still in committee but has strong backing and could also become law.
Finally, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act is being put in place to block the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC.
Even though its immediate effects may be limited, it is in line with President Trump’s anti-CBDC agenda and has become a rallying point for crypto advocates over the last few months.
While some investors are expecting a “cycle extension,” where Bitcoin’s ongoing rally stretches well into 2026, Rekt Capital believes that this sentiment is driven more by emotion and optimism than evidence.
“Many people are happy to throw away time-tested principles out the window,” he said. “It’s an emotional thing, and you don’t want emotional things clouding your judgment.”
Some of these new metrics include analyzing Bitcoin’s price correlation with the M2 Money Supply, which measures the world’s total money in circulation.
Supporters of this theory, like analyst Crypto Auris, argue that as worldwide liquidity increases, Bitcoin is poised to climb much higher and even hit $170,000 or more.
Updates from Crypto Auris | Source: Twitte
However, Rekt warns that replacing established patterns with speculative models introduces more risk than reward, especially for retail traders trying to time the market.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,155, just 2.5% shy of its all-time high of $111,970.
Over the past 30 days, the price has increased by 3.5% and added more fuel to the bullish narrative.
Traders are now expecting a fresh leg up, and many believe that a breakout above previous highs could trigger another wave of retail and institutional interest.
Yet, others like Rekt Capital argue that unless Bitcoin breaks out convincingly and quickly, the rally could stall or even reverse by the fourth quarter of the year.
The involvement of institutional investors might be one of the biggest reasons why some analysts believe the old halving-based cycle may no longer apply.
According to recent insights from Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, institutional flows have changed Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
This has made it less likely to follow past patterns.
In May, the bank predicted that Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by year-end, on the back of increased demand from these large-scale investors.
In the same vein, Bernstein echoed this forecast while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes went even further to predict a year-end target of $250,000.
Considering how respected firms like Standard Chartered and Bernstein are extending their bullish predictions, many are now wondering if the ongoing rally could break historical norms.
Even if the prices across the board keep rising, it is worth asking:
Will the risk-reward profile continue to be attractive for new investors, or will late crypto investors be buying at the market top before the crash?
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