According to a report by Blockware Intelligence, bitcoin has been able to thrive due partly to its success on "network effects," where more adoption leads to higher value and incentive for additional take up.
The new report predicted that the adoption of Bitcoin could occur more rapidly than past disruptive technologies such as automobiles and electric power. The report estimates that 10% of the world's population could be using Bitcoins by 2030. This would make them more popular than cars and electricity.
To get a sense of how Bitcoin might behave in the future, Blockware Intelligence looked at its historical adoption curves and growth rate since 2009. They compared it to a thorough analysis of the historical adoption curves for nine past disruptive technologies, including automobiles and electric power. Looking at these factors, it is possible to forecast what could happen with this new technology going forward.
"All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but […] newer network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects."
The report was then able to arrive at its prediction using the average and weighted average of historical technology adoption curves, as well as a growth rate for Bitcoin.
Blockware Solution has been at the forefront of Bitcoin mining and blockchain technology for years, so it's no surprise that this research arm is very bullish about adoption.
With the current macroeconomy and internet environment in place, Bitcoin is expected to reach saturation quicker than many other disruptive technologies, especially since there are direct monetary incentives to adopt.
While the model used to predict adoption rates is only conceptual at this point, it does not mean that investors should rely on these numbers. The report stresses how much work still needs to be done for their predictions to hold water and could change drastically when more data becomes available.
This report was reviewed by several crypto investors and analysts, including executives from Ark Invest, Arcane Assets, AMDAX Asset Management, and M31 Capital.
Cryptocurrencies have been growing in popularity over the last few years. According to data from TripleA, a global cryptocurrency payment gateway company overseeing 300 million users worldwide, global crypto ownership rates reached an average of 3.9% in 2021.
A recent study by Chainalysis revealed that global adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency has skyrocketed in just one year, increasing 881% from July 2020 to June 2021. The researchers found Vietnam to be the most willing country when it comes down — leading 154 countries analyzed–followed closely by India, with Pakistan hot on its heels!
In April, a survey conducted by cryptocurrency exchange Gemini found that half of the respondents from its 20 countries polled stated they started investing in coins or tokens during last year's second quarter.