Bitcoin is sitting in what many analysts still consider a “bargain zone,” despite sitting around the $95,000 mark.
According to Fidelity’s most recent Q1 2025 report, Bitcoin is currently undervalued.
28 April saw BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) rake in a massive daily inflow of $970.9 million.
According to economist and trader Alex Krüger on X, the drop in the most recent JOLTS data was a clear win for Bitcoin in the short term.
Overall, while short-term volatility is always on the table, the medium-term picture looks very bright.
As things stand, Bitcoin is sitting in what many analysts still consider a “bargain zone.”
This is even as the flagship cryptocurrency continues to hover around the $95,000 mark.
Bitcoin is experiencing growing institutional interest amid shifting macroeconomics and several technical indicators flashing bullish signals.
As such, experts believe Bitcoin’s next big move may only be a matter of time.
Fidelity Digital Assets recently showed optimism about Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook.
According to its most recent Q1 2025 report, the firm believes that Bitcoin is currently undervalued, especially when it is compared to a major metric, called the Bitcoin Yardstick.
This metric compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its hashrate.
A lower yardstick ratio shows that Bitcoin is cheap relative to the strength of its network.
The Bitcoin yardstick readings | Source: Fidelity
Fidelity’s report showed that the metric remained well below its overheated levels in Q4 of last year.
This means that it stayed between -1 and 3 standard deviations.
In essence, the metric is cooling down, and when combined with the absence of extreme deviations, both show that the market is both healthier and more stable.
One of the most notable trends in this outlook is the rise in the cryptocurrency’s illiquid Bitcoin supply.
Think of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply as the amount of BTC held in wallets with no history of selling.
The first quarter of this year saw Bitcoin’s illiquid supply grow from 61.5% to 63.49%, while liquid supply dropped by 4%.
This trend shows that more investors are choosing to hold rather than trade.
More importantly, the illiquid Supply Shock Ratio, which measures long-term holder strength compared to short-term selling pressure, is still about 16% below its 2017 peak.
This means that Bitcoin has more room for further improvement in price.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is still marginally strong.
28 April saw BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) rake in a massive daily inflow of $970.9 million.
This stands as the second-highest since its January 2024 launch. Interestingly, over one week between 22 - 28 April, the fund attracted over $4.5 billion in net inflows.
What makes this even more impressive is how other major ETFs like Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark’s ARKB showed outflows within the same period.
IBIT now manages more than $54 billion in assets and commands over half of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market.
This divergence shows that smart money is continuing to buy Bitcoin aggressively.
Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against harsh macro trends also got a boost from new U.S. labor market data.
According to reports, the March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed a major drop in open positions.
This report showed a fall from 7.57 million in February to 7.19 million in March, which is well below the 7.48 million economists had forecasted.
As it stands, a weaker labor market could push the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates sooner than expected.
The lower rates are expected to weaken the U.S. dollar and make risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive.
According to economist and trader Alex Krüger on X the JOLTS data was a clear win for Bitcoin in the short term.
He views Bitcoin as a “risk/gold hybrid” and expects it to benefit from more macroeconomic developments, including the ongoing tariff de-escalation and dovish central bank policies.
So far, the U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing for its next meeting, and major data points are scheduled for release over the next few days.
Some of these include Q1 2025 U.S. GDP figures, which may show the first quarterly contraction since 2022.
Another is the March PCE data, where a weaker GDP or lower-than-expected inflation would improve the odds of rate cuts and likely push Bitcoin higher. According to the Kobeissi Letter, analysts already expect negative GDP growth, and prediction platform Kalshi shows this outlook clearly.
Still, not all analysts are betting on smooth sailing.
Krüger warned that Q3 could bring an economic slowdown and possibly trigger volatility across the market.
However, he continues to maintain that Bitcoin would likely outperform altcoins due to its stronger risk-reward profile.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe also sees the current price action as healthy consolidation. He believes the next leg higher is “about to begin.”
Overall, while short-term volatility is always on the table, the medium-term picture looks very bright.
Investors still on the sidelines could see the current price zone as one of the last “bargain” entry points before Bitcoin targets six figures once again.
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