Assessing the Odds of a Bitcoin (BTC) Price Fall Below $16,000

Assessing the Odds of a Bitcoin (BTC) Price Fall Below $16,000

Key Insights 

  • In one year, Bitcoin's price dropped from $68,000 to about $17,000.
  • The loss of investors' interest and the FTX collapse led to a decline in BTC price value.
  • Indicators such as hourly MACD, RSI, and SMA could determine if BTC will decline past $16k.

2023 has finally brought some positivity to the BTC bulls as the asset overcame $16,500 and rose by 1.98% to $17,210. This has also pushed Bitcoin's market capitalization to a local peak of above $332 billion.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high value of over $68,000 in November 2021. One year later, the price tumbled to about $17,000. This price value decline cuts across all major crypto tokens. The period is described as crypto winter.

Why Did the BTC Price Tumble?

The crypto winter has seen the price value of altcoins, including Bitcoin (BTC), battling for survival. To compound the woe, the FTX exchange filed for bankruptcy and collapsed. 

In November, before the collapse of crypto platform giants such as Three arrow capital and FTX exchange, Bitcoin had a good performance. Bitcoin rallied from a low of $19,200 to a high of $21,800.  Similarly, some altcoins, such as DOGE, recorded a surge.  The FTX collapse has, however, cut short the surge and expectations from investors. 

The market seemed to recover when Binance announced that it would rescue the FTX exchange. However, after conducting due diligence, Binance said they would back out. This decision affected the market negatively. Within that period, Bitcoin declined to $15,700 after losing its all-time support of 2017 at $18,500. Since Bitcoin broke below its all-time high support, the price has looked bearish. 

Furthermore, investors are losing confidence in the crypto ecosystem. Most exchanges have recorded a surge in users withdrawing funds from their exchange to self-custody. Similarly, Binance reported that users moved $5 billion worth of crypto from the exchange in December.

Can BTC Drop Below $16k?

These indicators will determine whether Bitcoin's price will drop below the $16,000 level. 

The hourly Moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). This indicator serves as a trigger for buy or sell signals. Currently, the BTC hourly MACD is gaining traction in the bullish zone.

<em>Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysi| Source: TradingView</em>
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysi| Source: TradingView

Another technical indicator is BTC's hourly relative strength index (RSI). Significantly, BTC/USD'S relative strength index is currently within the over-purchased zone. The bears tried to pull the price down, but with more buyers' participation, the RSI is following an uptrend indicating a further price rise.

<em>Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysi| Source: TradingView</em>
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysi| Source: TradingView

Similarly, the major support level indicates that BTC might not go below $16k. The support for BTC is $16,885, and the resistance is $17,325. BTC price witnessed a reversal a couple of times, testing this resistance. However, with the current momentum, BTC is unlikely to fall below $16,000. BTC is currently on the verge of breaking above the current resistance level.

<em>Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysi| Source: TradingView</em>
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysi| Source: TradingView

Conclusively, the BTC is above the 100-day as well as 200-day SMA. This indicates that BTC is bullish. The surge in BTC price is expected to continue until it faces resistance just above $17,000.

Disclaimer: Voice of crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.

Related Stories

No stories found.
Voice Of Crypto