Key Insights
- Bitcoin has crashed hard, as many have realized.
- Many Bitcoin investors and holders are starting to sell at a loss, especially now that the cryptocurrency is down by miles from its all-time high.
- Bitcoin may either be at its bottom already or close to it.
Bitcoin has crashed hard, as many have realized. The flagship cryptocurrency is now down about 80% from its all-time high, and many investors are starting to bail.
According to the blockchain analysis platform, CryptoQuant, many Bitcoin investors and holders are starting to sell at a loss, especially now that the cryptocurrency is down by miles from its all-time high.
And while the current behavior of the crypto market may be interpreted by many as a doomsday sign that the bottom of Bitcoin’s dip isn’t here yet, there are still some indications that Bitcoin may either be at its bottom already or be close to it.
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Bitcoin Mimics 2015’s Price Action
November came with a sledgehammer in hand, and most of the market cryptocurrency has taken hits, with some cryptos being hammered harder than others, especially after the FTX saga.
However, most of the crypto market has moved on and is now trying to reclaim its previous highs.
Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is no different.
In fact, analysts and experts have found an interesting correlation between Bitcoin’s price action now, and its price action during the price dip and subsequent bounce of 2015.
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If these analysts are right, this could mean that Bitcoin may be on its way to a massive bounce. In this article, we examine the ideas shared on Twitter by the analyst and trader, Trader Tardigrade.
#Bitcoin is currently at the same situation as 2015 bottom.
1. Inverted and Logarithmic MACD moves above zero line.
2. $BTC falls onto the support zone, which created by upper wick of monthly candle in previous cycle top.
Massive BULL RUN follows.🚀 pic.twitter.com/zYfKoF19tX
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— Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) November 23, 2022
Trader Tardigrade started his thread to all 16,000 followers by noting that Bitcoin is in the “same situation” as the 2015 bottom.
As per his analysis, he used the inverted and logarithmic MACD indicators and mentioned that in both scenarios,
- The inverted and Logarithmic MACD moved above the zero line
- Bitcoin fell into a support zone created by the upper wick of the monthly candle of a previous cycle’s top.
- A bull run follows
While Trader Tardigrade’s ideas seem interesting, he is not the only one with ideas about how the bitcoin bottom may be upon us.
BTC Predicted Price Action
Another trader, with the Twitter username Moustache had similar ideas about the price action of the cryptocurrency being close or at its bottom.
For Moustache’s analysis, he used the RHODL ratio, which is an acronym for “Realized Value HODL Value Waves Ratio,” an indicator that calibrates the increase in holding (HODLing) over time concerning the number of lost coins by multiplying the ratio of both by the age of the market (in days).
This indicator has also successfully provided sell signals at every BTC top and buy signals at every BTC bottom.
As per Moustache’s analyses, every time in Bitcoin’s history, when the RHODL ratio leaves the green zone, the bottom is official, and Bitcoin always bounces.
Moustache notes that the RHODL ratio has left the green zone again. However, Bitcoin is still making new lows.
He wondered in the tweet if Bitcoin was being manipulated by the whales and other large investors but noted that when the Bitcoin bottom finally hits, the crypto market will “rise heavily.”
Bitcoin Not at Bottom Yet?
CoinLupin, an analyst from CryptoQuant, has also chipped in a few ideas and has mentioned that while many investors have been selling their assets at losses and may be interpreted as a bullish sign of a market bottom, the percentage of investors dumping their assets may not be enough to mark a bottom just yet.
He backs his analysis by referencing the UXTO metric. According to CoinLupin, the amount of the underlying cryptocurrency (in this case, BTC) still available after a transaction is known as the unspent transaction output (UTXO).
Although 70% of the UTXO, according to CryptoQuant, is still profitable, it was much lower during the recent weak markets.
He notes that most of those currently selling at a loss are investors who recently entered the market. He goes further to say that the market truly bottoms out when more than half of investors across the cycle, including this one, experience losses.
Disclaimer: Voice of crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.
