Key Insights
- Bitcoin, within a space of 24 hours, declined to the $15,000 zone despite briefly breaking $21,000 earlier in November.
- This Bitcoin price drop is only the fifth worst in its history.
- Recall that the previous cycle high was around the $13,800 zone.
This week has been especially bloody for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins. Investor sentiment collapsed earlier in the week following the FTX-Alameda issues and the reports about two of the biggest crypto exchanges in the world entering a “crypto war.”
These and several other factors weakened the standing of the flagship cryptocurrency, sending it plummeting into the fifth worst collapse in its history.
Bitcoin, within a space of 24 hours, declined to the $15,000 zone despite briefly breaking $21,000 earlier in November.
So far, the fundamentals on BTC all point towards bearishness, and analysts have returned to the charts to figure out where the cryptocurrency might be headed next.
Peter Brandt – Bitcoin to 10K?
According to the veteran crypto analyst, this week’s drop in Bitcoin’s price is only the fifth worst in its history.
It should be noted that the current decline in Bitcoin as of today's low is only the fifth worst bear market in history. An 80% decline would be 13,800 and an 85% decline would be 10,350. pic.twitter.com/84w8r9KeBf
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 9, 2022
Brandt further reassured his followers by sharing historical data that shows that the biggest BTC declines were 93.8% in 2011 and 86.1% from 2013 – 2015.
An 80% decline, Brandt says, would bring the cryptocurrency to $13,800, and an 85% decline would bring prices to $10,500.
We are not in uncharted waters as far as the price of Bitcoin goes.
Brandt said in the tweet that Bitcoin’s decline to $164 (beneath its previous cycle high) in January 2013 was one of the factors that spurred one of the biggest price explosions on the cryptocurrency to $1,177.
He says that Bitcoin’s price falling beneath its previous cycle high may be a game changer.
Recall that the previous cycle high was around the $13,800 zone. By implication, Brandt may suggest that Bitcoin falling below $13,800 may be a “game changer.”
Funding Rates Have Spiked Despite Dip
According to the crypto analysis platform, Santiment, traders across the market are starting to see Bitcoin’s current lows as a “buy the dip opportunity”.
Santiment, in a tweet, says that funding rates have spiked and metrics are now showing an extreme “long bias.”
😖 Traders are viewing #Bitcoin's 2-year low price levels as a #buythedip opportunity. Funding rates show an extreme #long bias, particularly on @FTX_Official, where many believe their funds may be impossible to withdraw. Feelings of hopelessness often correlate with higher risk. pic.twitter.com/OW2buYx2gb
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 9, 2022
Santiment says this is true, especially on exchanges like FTX, despite many traders believing that their funds may now be impossible to withdraw.
Santiment wrapped up the tweet by adding that `feelings of hopelessness are sometimes correlated with the willingness to take higher risks.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Analysts across the market are returning to the charts, and a few have come out with interesting observations and predictions.
The analyst, CateringClark, for example, has suggested in a tweet that the 15k support zone may provide brief support, but where the price of Bitcoin is likely headed is the 12k zone.
This is as clean of a continuation break as you are going to get, and this time we have a catalyst to really send it.
15k might provide brief support, but the next major area for price to settle seems to be around the 12k handle.
Cheap Bitcoin coming. pic.twitter.com/aDDMJIMRDh
— HORSE (@CanteringClark) November 9, 2022
“This is as clean a continuation break as you’re going to get,” he says in the tweet, ending it with the remark, “cheap bitcoin incoming.”
Another analyst, Caleb Franzen, in a tweet, has cited the annual Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) as the source of his information and has stated that the market has never seen the 52-week and the 104-week EMAs cross below the 156-week EMA. He further says that the market may see this happen if Bitcoin continues to fall.
#Bitcoin analysis using annual EMA's on weekly candles:
52-week EMA 🟡 = 1 year
104-week EMA 🔵 = 2 years
156-week EMA 🔴 = 3 years
We've never seen the 52 or 104 EMA's cross below 156 EMA, but we're getting very close this cycle.
Is a new first coming for $BTC? pic.twitter.com/knUwdAnqvb
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) November 9, 2022
As illustrated above, the 52-week (red) and the 104-week (green) Exponential moving averages are fast approaching the 156-week (purple) EMA and may cross over one another beneath it.
Caleb Franzen ended his tweet with the question, “Is a new ‘first’ coming for $BTC?”
Disclaimer: Voice of crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.
