Signs of a New Bitcoin Bull Cycle: ETF Approval by January Next Year to Kickoff Rally?

Signs of a New Bitcoin Bull Cycle: ETF Approval by January Next Year to Kickoff Rally?

Key Takeaways:

  • Bitcoin bull cycle might arrive soon.
  • Technical and on-chain indicators hint towards a bull run early next year.
  • Bitcoin ETFs are also expected soon.

Technical and on-chain indicators show that a Bitcoin bull cycle might be expected soon as the SEC is in advanced talks with Grayscale, BlackRock and others for an ETF approval.

January first or second week, mostly between 8th – 10th, an ETF approval is expected, according to many analysts.

Signs of a BTC Bull Cycle

Currently there are a few indicators which are strongly suggesting that there is an upcoming bull cycle which could start as soon as first week of January 2024.

However, like all assets such as stocks and crypto, a bull-cycle is only initiated by a major event which in the case of Bitcoin seems to be its ETF approval.

Currently we are witnessing two major signs that indicate an upcoming bull cycle in Bitcoin.

Net Unrealized Profits and Losses(NUPL)

NUPL is a key on-chain indicator shows that how much funds are in profits and yet have realized profits (not sold crypto).

#NOTE: Realization is the situation when people are selling Bitcoins and get to take out their profits. This is because they expect prices won't move further.

Each time NUPL has crossed beyond a certain limit, Bitcoin prices have jumped up. In late 2023 too, Bitcoin NUPL is increasing which shows a market is getting more profitable.

Market Value/Realized Value Ratio (MVRV)

The MVRV ratio shows the ratio of Bitcoin's Market Cap to Bitcoin investors' realized value. High MVRV value means more people are holding Bitcoin in expectation of higher profits. The below chart shows a rising MVRV ratio towards the end of 2023.

Rising MVRV Value Indicates a Bull Cycle ahead
Rising MVRV Value Indicates a Bull Cycle ahead

ETFs to Kickoff a Bitcoin New Bull Cycle?

The Bitcoin ETFs are set for a window of approval by January 8-10, 2024. This is expected to be a major kickoff event for a bull cycle in Bitcoin and therefore in crypto markets.

The SEC has also given ample hints that it might approve a spot Bitcoin ETFs this time. Now that Blackrock and SEC are in advanced round of talks for an ETF, it now seems imminent that SEC might give in after a pivot in it's approach.

Gary Gensler, who remained against any ETF approval has recently hinted on his change of stance which seems to be motivated by the Grayscale win against the SEC.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs would allow common people to invest in Bitcoin without knowing how to buy, store and maintain cryptocurrencies. This would remove the only roadblock to mass purchase of Bitcoins.

Bitcoin Price Movement in 2023

Bitcoin Price Movement Before the Bull Cycle in 2024
Bitcoin Price Movement Before the Bull Cycle in 2024

Bitcoin has one of the best returns in the last one year. Its returns were 272% within 2023 from $16,398.14 to $44,705. Further Bitcoin is very close to break a major resistance of $47,000 which it last touched in March 2022.

Bitcoin rose from $16,398 to $44,705 in six major phases.

  1. The first spurt in growth was noticed early in January 2023, when Bitcoin suddenly rose from $16,500 to $22,700 within a week or two.
  2. After a few weeks of consolidation, Bitcoin against rose from $20,187 to $27,668 between 11 to 19 March. Bitcoin remained in a consolidation phase till June 2023.
  3. Again in mid-June 2023, Bitcoin rose from $25,121 to $30,708. This was the first moment when the news for a potential ETF approval came.
  4. After a few failed hopes and SEC's delay tactics, Bitcoin consolidated for the next four months and then rose from $26,752 on 10th of October 2023 to $34,504 on 26th of October.
  5. The growth slowed, but still carried on till $37,861.
  6. On 1 Dec 2023, Bitcoin started its final leg of 2023 which is still in continuation taking Bitcoin to $44,705.

Bitcoin Price Analysis for 2024

Daily charts show that Bitcoin price has been in consolidation since Dec 05, 2023 with a resistance near $44,800. Indicators are also indicating mixed signals.

Bitcoin Daily Chart as on 16 Dec 2023
Bitcoin Daily Chart as on 16 Dec 2023
  • RSI shows that a bouce back in prices might happen soon. It changed direction and is reversing from a downtrend at a level of 58.
  • MACD shows that prices are at the maximum point of a negative crossover which indicates that fall in Bitcoin prices might slowdown soon.

Therefore, we suggest that if you are taking long positions in Bitcoin or are about to buy Bitcoin, you could keep a stoploss at $41.5k. On the upper side, prices of $47k might arrive once Bitcoin crosses $44.8k

Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.

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