The crypto markets are crashing again, with the headline-dominating crash of supposed stablecoin TerraUSD UST (and its support coin Luna LUNA) adding $64 billion in losses to an already downturn that saw cryptocurrencies lose over $ 1 trillion worth cumulatively in just five weeks.
This year, the cryptocurrency market has been volatile, with Bitcoin declining roughly 60% below its all-time high of $68,990. It briefly touched down to $25,400, below the often referenced $30,000 support level, before consolidating upward again— it is currently trading at $29,581.04.
The recent events in the cryptocurrency world may have felt like they were ripped from an apocalyptic Hollywood script, but many veterans are optimistic about its future. Some even say that bitcoin is right on track, and these developments won't affect it.
According to Benjamin Cowen, the host of Into The Cryptoverse, a famous technical crypto charting platform, Bitcoin could go as low as $15,000, and it would still be in line with what was expected by experts.
Even though technical price predictions can sometimes go with the wind, Cowen believes he is confident in the model since bitcoin has seen extreme volatility several times before without breaking its model. Back in January, Cowen called for $25,000 bitcoin.
Cowen explained further that if previous moves and bitcoin bear markets are any indications, we could expect the current pullback to be less severe than those that came before. The first one saw a 94% decrease from its peak value, then 87%, then 84%. With prices at just over 60%, it seems likely there would be more pullbacks.
He believes there should only be a concern if bitcoin goes down more than 84%, meaning the market is no longer following the model.
It's not just Cowen who sees dollar signs where Bitcoin is concerned. Jeffrey Ross, Managing Director at Vailshire Capital, has described a $20k bitcoin as "a generational opportunity" for investors. His fund will be buying up any available coins cheaply – even when they're going down. In value!
Cowen's not alone in his analysis. Jeffrey Ross, Managing Director at Vailshire Capital, has described a $20,000 bitcoin as a "generational opportunity" for investors, stating his fund is a net buyer as the currency's price declines.
"I look at things like the 200-week moving average—that's sitting at like $21,000 right now. Bitcoin in the past, when it's gotten as bad as it can get, usually goes down and kisses that line. It can dip below, but then there would be tons of people—myself included—backing up the truck to buy as much as possible," Ross said in a Zoom interview. "So I don't think it would last very long."
Both analysts agree that following the recent tightening by the Fed, it is likely that this will prolonged recovery as markets maintain a "risk-off" appetite. Bitcoin has been around for 13 years. Its entire history coincides with one of the most prolonged bull runs in modern times, meaning stationary regression models may not necessarily hold as the macro environment changes.
Even if we don't consider the technicals, Ross mentioned that the continued strength of on-chain metrics like bitcoin's adoption rates is the driver of massive growth in the network's value.
In summary, if we consider the duration of the past bear markets (12 – 18 months), the price of bitcoin is expected to be unstable for a while. Finding out the lowest it can go is also a lost cause as there is no certainty, just guesses. But all in all, one thing is sure: these short-term price reductions might turn out to be a good thing in the long term.