Michael van de Poppe questioned the traditional four-year Bitcoin price cycle in a recent tweet, due to the behaviour of the market as of late
The strange market dynamics and the lack of a post-halving rally were more reasons for the analyst to believe this cycle might be shorter.
Van de Poppe predicts a market cycle until late 2026 or 2027, followed by a sharp decline before the next halving
Van de Poppe proposes selling Bitcoin and using the liquidity to buy altcoins for higher returns.
This strategy involves using profits from one asset class to invest in another but requires a careful altcoin selection with a low Bitcoin correlation.
Bitcoin has been through a cycle of flash crashes and false rallies since making a new all-time high before the halving in mid-March.
In the midst of all of the market’s confusion, renowned analyst, Michael van de Poppe has cast doubt on the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, and how valid it remains until date, a whole 15 years after the initial launch of Bitcoin.
This doubt from the analyst comes from the last Bitcoin halving, which contrary to investor expectations, came with not only the first-ever pre-halving all-time high but also a completely lacklustre price action after the event.
Let’s take a look at what van de Poppe means:
According to a recent tweet from Van de Poppe, the four-year cycle that everyone seems to believe in might not be happening this time around.
The analyst highlighted the market dynamics including demand, supply and liquidity are not a one-way street, and that this cycle might turn out to be significantly shorter than the rest, considering how strange it has been so far.
Moreover, we may not see a Bitcoin cycle of four years this time, but one of three years.
A shorter cycle?
In essence, the analyst predicts that not only will this cycle be short altogether, but the bull market might last until late 2026 or even 2027, followed by a severe crisis (likely the next bear market).
The analyst didn't stop there.
In a recent YouTube video posted and shared with his subscribers, Van de Poppe noted that he would be selling all of his Bitcoin. Not only that, he would also be using all of his liquidity to buy altcoins.
His reason for this move is that he intends to take advantage of what he thinks is the “best opportunity out there in terms of valuation.”
Van de Poppe says that by selling all of his Bitcoin and buying altcoins, he can leverage the high “returns on investment” they offer, and then sell again and buy Bitcoin.
This strategy, while risky, is a well-known one.
It capitalizes on what is known as ‘opportunity cost’, and only works when investors do not cling to one particular asset class, but use the ROI on one to accumulate another.
Overall, the only flaw in van de Poppe’s outlook on Bitcoin is that most of the altcoins in the market, in a way, move in tandem with Bitcoin.
At the end of the day, the “opportunity cost” strategy is a solid one, as long as the altcoins to be considered have relatively low correlations to Bitcoin, and have a proven track record of resilience against its bearish whims.
It is also important to note that memecoins should never be used as a hedge against the pioneering cryptocurrency, considering how Dogecoin (89%) and SHIB (69%) have almost perfect correlations, according to IntoTheBlock data.
Investors may need to brace for shorter cycles and prepare for a possible crisis between now and 2027, as van de Poppe predicts.
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