As of now, Bitcoin price levels are marking the critical indicators for gauging the macro trend in crypto.
Hovering around the $21,000 price level, the Bitcoin price trend is showing weakness. Although, the realized price level of Bitcoin stood at $22,500, making it a lucrative area to cash in.
Since the risk asset has already bounced, it might continue the race upwards. After testing the $20,800 region, Bitcoin can ascend towards $22,400 and to $23,100 furthermore.
Some market participants do expect a clear bullish trend to emerge. A perspective on the long-term situation can be important to the current price action.
John Bollinger, the creator of Bollinger Bands, took to Twitter to express his fresh take on BTC/USD. The tweet was about forming a ‘picture-perfect double top’ in monthly charts on BTCUSD. This, as John quoted, can be set as a “logical place to put in a bottom.”
Bitcoin price is bottoming out
Almost all indicators for Bitcoin are at all-time lows, as signaled by the Glassnode. Most of the macro indicators are signaling potential bottom formation.
The current Bitcoin price is justified by using three bear market floor models.
The first is ‘The Mayer Multiple of 0.6’ (red line). The current price trades at a 40% discount to the 200-day moving average. This puts the Bitcoin price action under the multiple and counts for about 3.4% of the trading days.
The second one is ‘Realized Price’ (orange line). It is nothing but the total cost of spent coins on Bitcoin addresses. The ‘yellow line’ here reflects the model line above the Bitcoin price line. This event makes up 14% of the Bitcoin trading days.
The third model line is ‘200 Day Moving Average’. It has given support during the final bear market capitulation phases.
The Bitcoin Price is also below this line, marking 1% of the trading days.
Combining the three models produces a ‘blue verticle line’ indicative of bottoming-out phases. Those blue lines have only been there for 13 days over a 4361 trading history, or 0.2% of all trading days.
Although this doesn’t mean that models are indicative of a bottoming market. Rather, they tend to cluster, as visible, during the bear market times. This clustering, as a result, produces visual evidence to support the bottom’s predictions.
