Bitcoin's global liquidity model has flashed a bullish signal for the first time in two years.
Analyst Jamie Coutts predicts that its price might double to as high as $120,000 in this cycle.
Despite the bullish outlook, Bitcoin's price is facing short-term challenges like weakness in spot demand and sell-side pressure.
The price has fallen below its 50-day SMA and formed a bearish 'death cross'.
Through it all, the crypto whales have been accumulating despite friction around $60,000.
Bitcoin has once again caught the attention of several market analysts despite its ongoing sluggishness underneath the $60,000 mark.
According to these analysts, cryptocurrency has flashed a key bullish signal for the first time in two years, historically correlated with price explosions.
So far, we might be gearing up for a possible doubling of the cryptocurrency’s price action to as high as $120,000 in this cycle.
Here are some of the biggest analyst predictions on Bitcoin so far.
According to Jamie Coutts, the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, the signal in question comes from Bitcoin’s global liquidity model.
For context, this tool is used to gauge market conditions and predict Bitcoin’s direction.
Coutts shared his insights via a lengthy tweet on 15 August, where he mentioned that “The central banks are capitulating, the liquidity spigots are opening, and #Bitcoin is about to go much higher.”
According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s composite global liquidity momentum model (MSI) has shown the first “bullish regime” signal since November 2023.
Historically, this has always translated into a massive bullish rise, with a key example being the 75% rally on Bitcoin between November 2023 and April 2024.
Furthermore, something similar happened in the 2017 market cycle, leading to a 1,900% increase in Bitcoin's price.
We have another example again in 2020, where Bitcoin did a 600% jump.
Given this historical context (and possibly the law of diminishing returns), Coutts expects a 200 - 300% price jump.
Putting Bitcoin between $120,000 - $180,000.
The basic idea behind Coutts' outlook is that Bitcoin's price can jump by two to three times its current value.
However, several other factors determine how well things go (or don’t go). For example, according to other analysts, despite the bullish outlook, Bitcoin's price is facing some short-term challenges.
For example, a recent report from Glassnode shows a small "weakness in spot demand."
This has been a major factor in the cryptocurrency’s price fluctuations.
Ongoing weakness in Bitcoin’s spot demand
Furthermore, the cumulative volume delta ( or the CVD) metric, which tracks the balance between buyers and sellers in the spot market, has shown strong sell-side pressure since Bitcoin hit its all-time high in March.
Moreover, according to the charts, Bitcoin fell below its 50-day SMA (blue line below) last week during the general market crash and the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade—so far, the cryptocurrency is struggling to get back above, as shown.
Bitcoin struggles underneath its 50-day SMA
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin struggles underneath its 50-day SMA
This is without mentioning the "death cross" it formed on the daily chart between its 50 and 200-day EMA, as highlighted by Benjamin Cowen in this tweet.
Finally, we have movements from the whales to think of.
According to data from Material Indicators in this tweet, the whales have taken this crash below the 50-day SMA as an opportunity and have been stashing the cryptocurrency.
Material Indicators believes that there is some friction preventing the whales, though.
If the bulls continue failing to bring the price above $65,000, they will need to build more bid liquidity above $58,000 to sustain the current range.
This means that Bitcoin is now stuck between $65,000 and $58,000, with strong bid orders below $60,000 and stiff resistance above.
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