Let's Be Realistic—How Likely Is a Solana ETF?

Ethereum ETF paves the way for future crypto ETFs like Solana, but market uncertainty remains despite regulatory progress.
Solana, Voice of Crypto 

Key Insights

  • The recent Ethereum ETF approvals by the SEC have just opened doors for other cryptos to be approved as commodities.

  • Solana's market cap growth and investor interest make it a strong contender for a future spot ETF.

  • The FIT21 bill and changing institutional attitudes towards crypto is a positive sign for a better crypto regulatory landscape.

  • Despite positive signs, investor bets on Polymarket and expert opinions indicate that it is too early to tell what might happen with a Solana ETF.

The Ethereum ETF applications from 21 Shares, Fidelity and about six other applicants got approved this week, and the internet is still abuzz.

While this may seem like any mere approval, the Ethereum ETFs being approved opens up doors to several other possibilities, regarding whether a cryptocurrency is a commodity or security.

In essence, Ethereum is now directly recognized as a commodity (rather than a security) by the SEC, which means other cryptocurrencies can be as well.

One of the biggest contenders for this role would be Solana, considering how aside from BNB and USDT, it is the next largest cryptocurrency by market cap and is the closest contender to Ethereum.

But let’s be realistic here—can we really see a Solana ETF?

Solana’s Market Position

According to CoinMarketCap data, Solana is up by around 777% over the last year, gaining around 68% since January.

<div class="paragraphs"><p>Solana’s price action</p></div>

Solana’s price action

The cryptocurrency’s market cap has also soared to around $77 billion, making it very attractive to investors, and the next in line for the massive ETF speculation wave.

Investors have increasingly called out for Solana so much, that even CNBC’s Brian Kelly and Joe McCann, CEO of Asymmetric Finance have jumped on the bandwagon, recognizing Solana’s potential as well as its ability to emerge as a big player like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

<div class="paragraphs"><p>Solana is the next ETF</p></div>

Solana is the next ETF

However, considering how the price of Ethereum has surged by around 29% over the last week, based on hype from the ETFs alone, Solana's strategy with its memecoin wave, its crypto phones and its defi/depin boom make it poised to directly challenge Ethereum should an ETF be approved.

Wall Street and Trump’s Crypto Embrace

So far, it is interesting how large asset managers like Blackrock, which were once skeptical of crypto have shown massive eagerness to launch and offer crypto ETFs to their clients.

So far, since the Ethereum ETFs have been approved, Michael Cahill of Doura Labs believes that a Solana ETF might face no new objections towards approval, considering its proof-of-stake mechanism and strong developer activity.

We also have the recent passage of the  FIT21 bill by the US House of Representatives, which is set to give the US regulatory landscape for crypto a new perspective

Even though President Biden still has his reservations about said bill, Trump and the democrats' support indicates a major shift in attitude towards cryptocurrencies.

There Might be Hurdles to Scale

However, despite the good signs, there are still bad ones.

For example, on Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform for world events, the chance of a Solana-based ETF happening this year has a meagre 14% probability of happening, according to investor bets.

<div class="paragraphs"><p>Investors bet on a 14% chance</p></div>

Investors bet on a 14% chance

Moreover, Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute and President of the ETF Store also thinks that a Solana ETF is a pipe dream, unless “either CME-traded $SOL futures exist, or Congress puts “legit” crypto regulatory frameworks in place”

<div class="paragraphs"><p>No Solana ETF</p></div>

No Solana ETF

Overall it is still too early to tell whether a Solana ETF will happen or not, considering how Ethereum ETFs only got approved less than a week ago.

Generally, investors seem pessimistic about the fact. However, there are generally positive signs, considering the FIT21 bill, the growing institutional interest in the ETF market, and the rapidly improving crypto landscape, which suggest that Solana might be the next on the ETF list.

Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.

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