Key Insights:
Short-term targets indicate Solana could hit $300 by mid-year 2025.
By the end of 2025, Solana could hit $1000 if its ETF gets approved.
In the long term, we assume Solana will break above $4000 based on strong fundamentals.
However, SOL needs to diversify its dependence on memecoins rapidly.
The least we can expect in Solana is the arrival of $300 in the first quarter of the year (Jan to Mar 2025). This price target is based on the current markets' continual bullish trend.
Solana's Last 1 Year Price Trend
CoinMarketCap
For the majority of Q4 2024, we saw the markets be extremely bullish. This bullishness endures despite the heavy corrections in the last 8 to 10 days. Therefore, as the crypto markets recover, we assume Solana will make a new ATH of around $300 in the first quarter of 2025.
An analyst who predicted SOL's growth from $8 to $200 showed that Solana could easily climb above $1000 in 2025. After the recent consolidations, SOL has taken support near the $190 level, which could induce further growth in its price.
Further, as per VanEck, Solana ETFs are also due for approval around May 2025. Without ETFs, Solana has outperformed Bitcoin; we expect that with ETF support, it would easily become the best-performing Layer-1 coin in the market.
We also expect TVL and dApp growth in Solana to aid in its price journey toward $1000. Currently, Solana enjoys the second-largest TVL after Ethereum. Also, Raydium (the largest DEX on Solana) has reached almost the same market share as Ethereum's Uniswap.
Solana DEX Volumes Nov 2024
billion DeFi Llama
Finally, in December 2024, Solana was the most active blockchain. In the last 30 days, its active user records were 111 million, much higher than Ethereum's 7.46 million.
Solana Active Monthly Users, Last 30 Days
Token Terminal
Solana has seen the formation of another cup and handle pattern on its monthly charts, and at press time, the chart has already been completed. This chart pattern is on a multi-year timeframe which means that there is a very high chance that it becomes a reality.
Based on the estimates of a target, after the completion of this cup and handle pattern, we see that Solana could hit $4000 levels. However, this journey would not be as straightforward as it seems.
Despite all the fundamentals factors and the charts, SOL growing alone in the crypto markets is next to impossible. Hence, such a growth in Solana which is beyond 20,000% must happen in a long duration bull run.
Thankfully, under the Presidency of Donald Trump, this bull run seems to be a near-term reality. Trump has won the US elections riding on a significant pro-crypto wave that he himself is a part of (World Liberty Financial). Further, all Trump supporters, including Musk, his SEC pick Atkins, his CFTC pick Quintez, and his multiple advisors, are either pro-crypto or neck-deep in crypto investments.
Further, as more corporations turn to crypto for their needs, it is likely that a major pro-crypto policy will see the day of the light in 2025.
Despite all its growth metrics, Solana has a weak point that, ironically, is also its strongest aspect. There is little to no doubt that the stellar success of Solana was primarily due to the speculation in the memecoin markets.
Though other growth metrics like TVL, Dapp growth, and DEX growth have followed, the core of Solana's popularity still is its diverse memecoin ecosystem. This aspect could soon become a pain point in Solana if not addressed now.
Opposite to other projects like Bitcoin, which survives on long-term user retention, memecoins survive on speculative trading and pop-culture trends. These trends are often volatile and die quickly.
Going forward, if Solana wishes to retain its growth rate, it must diversify its revenue sources to other emerging sectors like AI and RWA. Otherwise, Solana might have a difficult time even maintaining its current price.
Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information but will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.