Bitcoin has come a long way.
From being worth only a few cents to being labelled a complete scam, Bitcoin has now become one of the biggest and most popular financial assets, with a 512 billion dollar market cap.
BTC, so far, has surpassed indexes and other traditional financial assets in terms of market dominance and has been the inspiration for several other crypto-related financial assets since 2009.
But is BTC done?
Bitcoin may even just be getting started.
According to a recent report from the $4.8 billion hedge fund Pantera Capital, BTC may be headed for a 2.9 trillion market cap, when its price hits $150,000 after the next halving.
According to a recent report or "blockchain letter", as Pantera Capital calls it, BTC will hit $150,000 during its next halving.
Citing Bitcoin's halving cycles as a strong factor in Bitcoin's price action, Pantera argued that these cycles have a significant impact on where BTC goes in terms of price.
With the next cycle expected sometime around mid-2024, the company strongly believes that past patterns might repeat themselves.
According to the article, BTC often moves in equal cycles at the bottom and top of each halving.
Because of this, Pantera says that BTC's value will increase to $35,000 before the halving event, and to a staggering $148,000 after it.
Pantera went further to say that Bitcoin has typically bottomed 477 days before a halving, risen shortly after, and then skyrocketed to the upside soon after.
This validates 2022's bottom as the current cycle bottom and might be the reference point that makes the rally to $150,000 possible.
Between the halving event and the top of the next bull cycle, the post-halving rallies have, on average, lasted 477 days, according to Pantera.
However, this hasn't been the case.
The collapse of FTX and the BTC decline that followed may have pushed the 477-day timeline by up to a month.
The true bottom, happened on November 9, 2022: two days before SBF resigned as the CEO of FTX.
According to Pantera's report, there will be a rise in BTC's price in early 2024, followed by a significant uptick right after the halving happens.
And as it happens, BTC is sitting about 8% below Pantera's $35,000 re-halving estimate.
Nobody expects any form of analysis to be 100% accurate. However, Pantera does appear to have a point.
The report uses Bitcoin's S2F (stock to flow) model to analyze the impact of Bitcoin's halvings.
And according to Pantera, the impact of each halving is expected to reduce slightly, as the halving affects the supply of Bitcoin.
For example, only one-third as many new bitcoins were available after the 2016 halving, with exactly one-third of an effect on price.
The 2020 halving also lowered the new BTC supply by 43% in 2020 with a 23% impact on price.
From this, it is safe to say that Bitcoin may range from $25,000 – $30,000, and then from $30,000 – $35,000 from now until the halving.
According to a recent quick take, posted by Onchain Edge on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin may be closer to a bottom than anyone knows.
The analysis piece cites the NVT (network value to transaction) ratio indicator, which measures the relationship between an asset's market cap and how much of it is being transferred by customers over the network.
When the NVT goes up, it means that the asset is overvalued, and may come down.
When the NVT goes down, it means that the asset is relatively cheap, and may be ready for buying.
Onchain Edge mentions that BTC's NVT value is currently -2.07, and has gone as low as 3.12 in the past.
Because of this, the article ends by saying "It is probably wiser to look for entries during the next dips."
To put things more simply, Bitcoin may dip further from $25,000. However, if it does, this would mark the final bottom of this cycle (close to the FTX lows as Pantera Capital said), and would be ripe for buying and HODLing as the next cycle approaches.
According to charts from TradingView, Bitcoin's decline brought it straight down to the $25,000 zone.
Because of this, BTC is now face to face with the $24,856 support.
BTC's situation is bad. However, it can still be salvaged.
The bulls only have to keep the cryptocurrency above this zone as the market normalizes.
Because a break below this zone would bring BTC straight down to the $19,824 support.
On the flip side, if the bulls can keep BTC above $19,824, its chances of retesting $30,000 very soon remain intact.
Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.