Analysis

Ethereum Outperforming Bitcoin, but for How Long?

Jim Haastrup

Key Insights

  • Ethereum came six years after Bitcoin – however, there are several indicators that Ethereum may one-day 'flip" or surpass Bitcoin
  • Bitcoin's dominance (45.4%) is well above twice that of Ethereum (19.8%), indicating that a "flipping" may still be far off.
  • Ethereum is gaining on Bitcoin in terms of transaction volume, trading volume and even the number of tweets.
  • Before the Shanghai upgrade on April 12, the ETH-BTC open interest ratio appears to have peaked, showing considerably larger demand for ETH than BTC.

Since its first block, the Genesis Block was mined in 2009, Bitcoin has led the cryptocurrency market in terms of market valuation.

On the other side, Ethereum entered the race six years later, in 2015, with its smart contracts to provide the groundwork for non-fungible tokens and decentralized finance (DeFi) (NFT).

While some BTC fans argue that Bitcoin is the only fully decentralized cryptocurrency and is destined to rule the cryptocurrency market due to its finite supply, others contend that Ethereum is the forerunner in smart contracts and will eventually surpass Bitcoin.

The term "The Flippening" refers to this hypothetical occurrence.

The question at this point, becomes: When is this "Flippening" going to happen?

The Flippening

When Bitcoin's market dominance declined from 95.88% in March to 51.37% by August of 2017, The Flippening became a hot subject on social media sites Reddit and Twitter.

At the moment, Bitcoin has a dominance of 45.4%, while that of Ethereum is 19.8%. From this, one thing is clear: Bitcoin's dominance is well above twice that of Ethereum. And if the flippening will ever happen, it isn't happening anytime soon.

Here's something interesting:

There is an active index measuring the probability of flippening right now using several criteria.

Chart showing the progression of the flippening | Source: Blockchain Center

Nevertheless, the well-publicized Ethereum merge that occurred in September 2022 raised new concerns regarding whether or not the flippening will truly occur at some point in the near future.

Chart showing the flippening by metrics

The Ethereum blockchain's transition from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake mechanism as a result of the merging offers many advantages, including a more environmentally friendly future for the network.

The snapshot above shows that Ethereum is gaining on Bitcoin in terms of transaction volume, trading volume and even the number of tweets.

Ethereum has even flipped Bitcoin by metrics like transaction count and transaction fees.

Is Ethereum Really Better Than Bitcoin?

Although it makes sense for market participants to compare Bitcoin and Ether to one another and wonder which is better, experts have stated that the idea is not as straightforward as it may first appear.

In actuality, they are both fundamentally different.

  • While Ethereum is a distributed blockchain network that supports Ether as well as many other decentralized software platforms, Bitcoin is an investment asset that may serve as a store of value.
  • Peer-to-peer transactions are made possible via Bitcoin. It functions as a substitute for fiat money and is freer from all its drawbacks. Peer-to-peer transactions are also possible with Ethereum, but it also offers a framework for developing distributed apps (DApps) and smart contracts.

At the same time…

ETH vs. BTC Price Action – Flippening Soon?

With a 10.3% advantage in 2023, Bitcoin has shown a more consistent performance than ETH. The ETH/BTC price dropping to its lowest level since July 2022 is evidence of this.

Chart showing BTC's leading on Ethereum over the year

As shown in the chart above, the RSI is approaching overbought conditions, indicating that ETH may be losing some of its gains on Bitcoin.

Asides from this, a trendline can easily be drawn on the daily chart, showing that ETH is currently facing resistance at about 0.07 $BTC, and may be facing some bearish action soon as illustrated below.

Chart showing ETH facing resistance against BTC

Yet for some very important reasons, there's a chance that ETH will do better than BTC soon.

A good look at the chart shows that there is an impending golden cross between the 20-day moving average (red) and the 50-day moving average (purple). This indicates a possible trend continuation on Ethereum and a possible breakout from the channel on its charts.

ETH May Still Outperform BTC Soon

First off, since Binance suspended zero-fee trading for the majority of its BTC trading pairs in March, relative spot demand for ETH has surged recently as a result of a decline in BTC spot trading volume.

The open interest and trade volume may be bottoming out, and futures markets are suggesting a possible flip in favour of ETH.

Chart showing Bitcoin and Ethereum's Weekly Price & Spot Volume Ratio

The significant fall in Bitcoin's spot trading volume following Binance's suspension of zero-fee trading is what has caused the relative spot trading volume of ETH and BTC to increase. Furthermore, there are signs that ETH will do better in future markets than BTC.

Before the Shanghai upgrade on April 12, the ETH-BTC open interest ratio appears to have peaked, showing considerably larger demand for ETH than BTC.

In conclusion, the trading volume on the perpetual futures market also indicates that the relative volume of ETH to BTC may have fallen to its lowest level, which may support an increase in ETH's price in the future.

From a value standpoint, it is crucial to keep in mind that ETH is currently on the decline against BTC since the ETH/BTC MVRV ratio is below its 365-day moving average.

Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.