BTC Price’s $29K Standoff: What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?

BTC Price’s $29K Standoff: What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?

Key Insights

  • The Fed has been raising interest rates steadily, and this may be bad news for BTC and the crypto market.
  • The Bank of Japan is expected to loosen its hold on the country's bond markets, which could eventually have an impact on global bond markets, currency rates, and liquidity issues.
  • Bitcoin appears to be in the beginning phase of a bounce from the $29,000 zone in the charts.
  • If Bitcoin breaks below its 50-day moving average, the next support point would be the $26,530 zone.
  • If Bitcoin does enter a bounce, a break above $32,000 is almost assured. This will open the doorway to a $35,000 Bitcoin and beyond.

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), the top two cryptocurrencies by market cap, held their grounds in terms of price this week, shaking off the effects of the FED's overnight rake hike by another 25 basis points.

CoinMarketCap data shows that BTC is now trading at was trading at $29,500 at the time of writing, with a 1% gain over the last 24 hours, while ether was changing hands at $1,877, with a 1.35% boost over the last 24 hours.

Despite the increases, Bitcoin remains significantly below its July high of $31,800 and relatively impervious to macroeconomic developments that have caused more dramatic market reactions in the last year.

Overall, this highly anticipated move by the FED has lost its touch on the markets, as the stock market even entered a minor boost, while major US equity indices traded slightly lower.

What is next for BTC, and what should we expect next from the flagship cryptocurrency?

FED's Quarter-Point Rate Hike Hits 22-Year High

The FED has been raising its interest rates steadily for a while now. This comes after the central bank held off on raising interest rates in June to analyze the impact of its past monetary tightening initiatives.

However, the effects of inflation have been biting hard at the US economy, leading to the FED's latest move.

To bring inflation down to the target 2% the FED decided that another rate hike was necessary. Hence the 25 basis point hike that took the interest rates from 5.25 to 5.5%.

Jerome Powell, the FED chairman mentioned during the post-hike press briefing on Wednesday, that the US can afford to be a little patient as all of this unfolds.

"We believe we will need to maintain policy at restrictive levels for some time, and we would be willing to raise them further if we believe it is appropriate,"

Powell said.

The rest of the world, however, appears to be keeping their fingers crossed, as illustrated by this tweet by a Twitter user, Arslan B.

"Time to put on your financial seatbelts and see how the dollar rides this roller coaster!" the tweet says.

What To Expect From Bitcoin and Top Cryptos

A rise in interest rates may be bad news for Bitcoin and the crypto market.

This is because when the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates, investors become drawn to conventional financial assets. When investors start to gravitate more towards these "safe" traditional financial assets, the demand for crypto (and other risk assets) falls marginally.

Most investors will be likely to shift their focus to less volatile and more stable assets like bonds,  as the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy to battle inflation.

This shift in investment behaviour may temporarily reduce demand for cryptocurrencies, causing BTC's price to fluctuate and, in the near term, drop.

BOJ's Latest Decision to Bring Bitcoin Volatility

Bitcoin's volatility has been a frustrating ride for cryptocurrency traders over the last few months.

One of the factors that make crypto such an attractive (and risky) investment is its volatility.

And as of late, BTC has been low on this key ingredient.

According to recent reports from several investment banks, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to loosen its hold on the country's bond markets.

This decision by the Bank of Japan might eventually have an impact on global bond markets, currency rates, and liquidity issues.

This means that the traditional financial landscape may be headed for a massive shakedown in volatility.

How will this affect cryptocurrencies?

In the past, there have been negative relationships between cryptocurrencies and bond rates, bond market volatility, the dollar index, and global liquidity circumstances.

In other words, the volatility caused by the BOJ's decision in traditional markets may likewise cause volatility in the crypto market.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis

Bitcoin appears to be in the beginning phase of a bounce from the $29,000 zone in the charts.

Bitcoin's price action | Source: <a href='https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CEMRvbZn/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT' target='_blank' rel='noreferrer noopener'>TradingView</a>
Bitcoin's price action | Source: TradingView

After the cryptocurrency's rejection from the $31,600 zone in mid-July, it fell to the $29,000 support zone and has been in a consolidation ever since.

However, Bitcoin appears to be showing signs of a potential bounce from this zone.

From a longer-term perspective, however, the cryptocurrency has been in a range since mid-June, after its initial rejection from the $31,000 zone.

If one didn't know any better, one could argue that the 25-basis point rate hike was largely expected, explaining the underwhelming reaction of Bitcoin to the latest rate hike.

Bitcoin's price action
Bitcoin's price action

Bitcoin's 200-day moving average (red) coincides perfectly with its ascending trendline throughout the year, while its 50-day moving average coincides with the 50-day moving average (blue).

Overall, the chances of Bitcoin's bounce from the $29,000 zone seems technically solid.

Bitcoin's possible price action
Bitcoin's possible price action

However, one thing to keep in mind is that if Bitcoin breaks through its 50-day moving average, the next support point would be the $26,530 zone.

And if Bitcoin were to break that to the bottom, the $20,000 zone isn't too far away.

The RSI on the daily chart is slightly in the bearish zone, indicating that the bears may have a slightly firmer hand on the market.

However, Bitcoin's price action over the last few days, also shows that the bulls are playing the defence game well.

If Bitcoin does enter a bounce, a break above $32,000 is almost assured. This will open the doorway to a $35,000 Bitcoin and beyond.

Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.

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