Bitcoin’s potential to reach $160,000 by Q4 2025 remains a hot topic amid its current trading around $113,000 (down from summer highs near $124,500), reflecting seasonal September weakness but supported by historical Q4 strength and ongoing accumulation trends.
Key Insights
- Analysts expect Bitcoin’s price to gain 44% in Q4, potentially reaching $160,000.
- The current weakness is typical of September downturns but tends to lead to a stronger rebound.
- Despite whale selling, retail and institutional accumulation are still strong.
Bitcoin’s price is showing signs of weakness. However, research indicates that the final quarter of the year could deliver massive gains.
Analysts believe that Bitcoin still has the strength to climb toward $160,000 by Christmas if performance patterns repeat themselves.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin now trades around $113,000 after recently dropping from its summer highs. While whale selling and market resistance are weighing down on its strength, both retail and institutional investors appear to be accumulating.
Bitcoin Price History Shows Strong Q4 Performance
Bitcoin price has a record of making gains in the final quarter of the year. According to research from economist Timothy Peterson, BTC has historically risen 70% of the time between late August and Christmas.
The average gain during these periods even sits at about 44%.
Exactly Four Months Until Christmas. How does Bitcoin fare during this time?
Up 70% of the time. Average gain +44%.
However I think some years do not have market/economic conditions comparable to 2025. I would exclude 2018, 2022, 2020, and 2017 as uncharacteristic years.… pic.twitter.com/0llPeTrilC
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) August 25, 2025
If Bitcoin repeats this pattern, the price could rise to around $160,000 by December. According to Peterson, not every year fits this trend. However, current market conditions are in favour of a more positive outcome. He excluded years like 2018 and 2022, when the general market conditions heavily affected performance.
September Weakness May Be a Setup for Gains
September has traditionally been Bitcoin’s weakest month. Data from Coinglass even shows that BTC has never ended September with more than an 8% gain. This seasonal weakness may be an explanation for the recent dip.
According to trader Donny, Bitcoin could be “frontrunning” its typical September downturn. This means that the market may have already priced in this seasonal effect. If so, the next few months could see a much stronger rebound.
Donny compared current moves with Bitcoin’s 2017 bull market, which showed similar corrections before large rallies.
BTC… 👓
We're just front-running the "September sell off".
The scale is different — but the outcome is the same.
Much higher. pic.twitter.com/3oZqRlrtgv
— Donny (@DonnyDicey) August 27, 2025
Whale Selling Adds Short-Term Pressure
One factor that has been holding Bitcoin’s price down has been selling from long-term holders. A so-called “OG” whale recently sent 250 BTC, worth over $28 million, to Binance after selling 750 BTC the day before.
Bitcoin OG “bc1qlf” just deposited another 250 $BTC($28.29M) to #Binance, with 3,000 $BTC($339M) left.https://t.co/92XAZMJQsp pic.twitter.com/fAugznA7gL
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 28, 2025
Market analyst Peter Brandt commented that such whale activity shows supply pressure, which is typical of market tops. However, despite this distribution, Bitcoin managed to push past $113,000. The rally even triggered the liquidation of $40 million in shorts within hours, according to CoinGlass.
Accumulation Trends Support a Bullish Case
While whales are selling, though, other market players are buying. According to data from Andre Dragosch of Bitwise, both retail and institutional accumulation are now at their highest levels since April.
Back then, Bitcoin was rebounding from lows under $75,000 before climbing to new highs.
🚨WATCH: The rate of accumulation across all $BTC wallet cohorts has increased to the highest level since April 2025!
Both retail & institutional investors appear to be stacking relentlessly atm.
Such high level of accumulation tends to precede major breakouts to the upside… pic.twitter.com/RbEjBKy6hT
— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) August 27, 2025
This behaviour insists that there is a trend of strong conviction among long-term investors. Dragosch also noted that high levels of accumulation tend to come before major breakouts, which reinforces the possibility of a Q4 rally.
Technical Levels to Watch
Traders are keeping an eye on $117,500 as a major price level for Bitcoin’s price. Brandt warned that failing to reclaim this point could form a “double top” pattern. This could lead to market weakness, as a double top occurs when an asset tests the same high twice but fails to break through.
On the other hand, reclaiming this level could invalidate any bearish scenarios and set the stage for another push higher.
Overall, traders need to watch whale activity and resistance at $117,500 to determine what happens next with Bitcoin. The asset breaking this level will confirm what kind of strength it has in store for higher moves. Until then, the battle between whale selling and investors accumulating will decide what happens over the short term.
Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.
