The Bitcoin price drop prediction suggests BTC could fall to $38,000 by October 2026, based on historical 364-day cycle patterns from peak to bottom. Analyst Ali Martinez forecasts a 70-80% correction from the $126,000 all-time high, mirroring previous bear market retracements.
Key Insights
- Historical data indicates that the current crypto cycle will reach its lowest point in October of this year.
- Analysts say that the cryptocurrency could experience a pullback between 77% and 84% from the previous record highs.
- The transition from market top to bottom typically follows a strict 364-day timeline.
The current crypto market now feels like a battle between two sides. Some traders believe another rally is coming soon, while others fear we are entering a new period of cold stagnation.
Analysts are watching the charts closely to see if a major Bitcoin price drop is inevitable, and recent data from on-chain experts points toward a specific date for the next market bottom.
If the math holds, the industry might see yet another crash before the current year ends.
Understanding the Math Behind the Bitcoin Price Drop
Popular analyst Ali Martinez recently shared an interesting outlook on social media. According to his analysis, Bitcoin follows a very specific rhythm.
He believes that the coin takes exactly 1,064 days to climb from the bottom to the top.
After hitting that peak, the return journey to the next bottom takes about 364 days. This pattern has appeared across three different cycles since 2015.
267 days remain until Bitcoin $BTC is projected to reach a cycle bottom, likely between $38,000 and $50,000. https://t.co/C66sa3gcd4 pic.twitter.com/1gUXpaY47C
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) January 12, 2026
The analyst noted that Bitcoin reached its most recent all-time high on October 6 of last year, right before a $19 billion wipeout.
On that day, the price surged just above $126,000, and if the 364-day rule is to be followed, the next bottom should be around October 5 of this year. This timeframe indicates a steady price drop that could catch many optimistic traders off guard.
Historical Retracements and the Search for a Bottom
The size of the expected crash is not just a guess. Analysts look at previous “crypto winters” to find the likely target.
Notably between 2017 and 2018, the market saw a massive 84% correction from the peak. The bear market between 2021 and 2022 was also slightly milder, with a 77% pullback.
When analysts take the midpoint of these two events, we get a retracement of 80%.
An 80% drop from the $126,000 high leads directly to a price of $37,500, and Martinez has refined this prediction to a range between $38,000 and $50,000. This indicates that the 2026 correction might be less severe than the one seen in 2018. Even so, a move to $38,000 would represent a major loss of value for those who bought near the top.
On the other hand, many experts believe institutional interest might prevent the price from falling all the way to $30,000.
Factors Driving the Bitcoin Price Drop Cycle
Several forces are contributing to these predictable market swings.
For starters, many early investors take profits once the price reaches six figures. This selling pressure creates a domino effect across the market, and as the price starts to slip, leveraged traders often have to deal with forced liquidations. This adds more fuel to the downward move.
The mood of the market also changes during these times as fear replaces greed as the primary emotion. Data from CoinGecko’s Bitcoin dashboard frequently shows that during established bear phases, daily trading volume trends lower compared with peak bull‑market periods. This lack of liquidity makes it easier for the price to fall further, and most people wait for a sign of stability before they start buying again.
Monitoring the Road to October
The next few months will be a test of patience for crypto holders. We might see small relief rallies that give people false hope.
These “dead cat bounces” are common during a long decline, as they often trap traders who think the bottom is already in.
Investors should check platforms like DefiLlama to see if money is leaving the ecosystem. If total value locked begins to shrink, it confirms that the general market is de-risking.
Moreover, the $38,000 level is a major psychological barrier. If the price reaches that point, we could see a massive wave of new buyers entering the market. This would set the stage for the next climb in the next year that comes.
Disclaimer: This article is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your capital. Readers are encouraged to perform their own research and seek guidance from a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Voice of Crypto does not endorse or promote any specific cryptocurrency, investment product, or trading strategy mentioned in this article.
