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The Ripple vs SEC case may soon be shut down by the SEC followed by a closed door meeting.
SEC and Ripple Labs executives are scheduled to meet today at 2:00 PM, Eastern Time.
The meeting result could pan out in multiple ways including a no-deal situation.
On favorable results, XRP could rally till $3 while unfavorable situation could sink it below $2.
Ripple and SEC will hold a private closed door meeting between their executives in less than 12 hours. The meeting will take place via video confernce and might provide the final solution for the Ripple vs SEC case.
XRP Price Trends in the Last 30 Days
CoinMarketCap
In December 2020, the US SEC filed a $1.3 billion lawsuit against Ripple alleging securities violation. The SEC termed the 2013 Ripple ICO as an illegal securities offering when Ripple sold nearly $700 million XRP to retail buyers and the rest to corporate investors.
SEC also demanded a penalty of $2 billion from Ripple Labs and its executives.
The case was divided into two parts corresponding to the retail and corporate sales.
The verdict on the retail sales came in August 2023 when the District Court of the Southern District of New York(SDNY) presided by Judge Analisa Torres gave a verdict in favor of Ripple. The ruling noted that XRP did not solicit payments in return for profits and hence did not satisfy the Howey Test.
However, the court said there might be an expectation of profit by corporate buyers and hence in the corporate case, Ripple was fined $125 million for irregularities. By August 2024, this case too was settled.
The SEC then went ahead to file an appeal with the appellate court dragging on the case even further. The current meeting is scheduled to discuss the future of this case.
Ripple could likely be exempted from the US SEC's charges and the SEC might decide to waive its right to collect the $125 million fine. Such a situation is unlikely but given the proximity of Brad Garlinghouse and Donald Trump, the situation is not impossible.
Such a bullish scenario would indicate that the SEC has completely turned pro-crypto and ETF approval could be sooner than expected. In such situation, XRP could cross $3, recovering faster than the broader markets.
The most likely scenario could be that Ripple Labs pay $125 million fine which has not been paid yet due to SEC's appeal. This amount was mandated as a fine by the court of SDNY.
This scenario too could push Ripple ahead, probably till $2.75.
Ripple and SEC might not come to terms on the first meet. This could arise speculation in the markets after Donald Trump's shocking decision that no new Bitcoin purchases would take place, at least in the near future.
In the current bearish markets, a failed or inconclusive meeting could sink the broader markets too, taking Ripple below $2.
XRP has seen one of the least corrections among major cryptos. In the last one month, it corrected 6.4% as compared to 16% in Bitcoin and 30% in Ethereum. These corrections indicate that markets have been expecting a favorable outcome.
Further, with Ripple's upcoming ETF, the price might show a strong momentum ahead.
XRP's price has been moving in a descending triangle pattern and the bullishness of the last four days indicate a breakout till $2.55. If the breakout sustains, which is possible only if the meeting goes favorable, the markets could show a rally till $3, the next major resistance level.
XRP Charts Indicate Possible Breakout This Week
Tradingview
XRP's RSI and MACD have already shown strong momentum in favor of a rally. RSI has been rising higher since Sunday and MACD has been converging.
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