Bitcoin price action throughout the year has been weird ride with FED and macro economic factors controlling BTC. Taking a look at Bitcoin price action throughout the second quarter and assessing key trend changes could pave the way for better clarity on the top crypto's trajectory.
The Federal Open Markets Committee or FOMC is expected to relay the outcome of the last FED news conference on Wednesday this week, meaning that this may very well be the most important day for Bitcoin this year.
The Federal Reserve (FED) increased the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 bps in March.
At the time, central bankers weren't sure of what was to come next.
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the FED, made it clear that more rate increases "may be appropriate" and that the choice "will be data dependent."
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recently moved, with an annualized fall to 5.0% (from 6.0%), but core inflation is turning out to be quite persistent.
At the end of the day, the market anticipates that Wednesday's 0.25 basis point rate increase will be the final one for this cycle.
However, in recent news, Glassnode has brought some key information about the flagship cryptocurrency to light, and it is worth sharing.
In a tweet on Wednesday, Glassnode drew attention to Bitcoin's maximum correction drawdown ratio.
In the tweet, the analytics firm implied how many people might think that the drop in Bitcoin from $69,000 (November 2021) to $15,000 (November 2022) was devastating.
At the same time, the drawdown of the current bear market "pales" in comparison to other market corrections on the cryptocurrency.
For context, consider Bitcoin's insane crash from $32 to as low as $0.01 in 2011 after the security issues with the now-defunct Mt Gox exchange.
Another good example is the cryptocurrency's plummet from above $20,000 to below $3,200 in December 2017 after security issues on Coincheck, a Japanese cryptocurrency exchange among others.
Glassnode notes that the drawdown on the current bear market is only 18.6%, while 2010 had -49.4%, 2015 has -36% with the worst of all being the 71.2% drop in 2011.
Meanwhile…
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's (BTC) reserve-risk multiple has surpassed zero and has moved to the positive side for the first time since October 2021.
Parabolic price rallies were made possible by earlier crosses above zero, according to the On-chain analyst Ali Martinez in a tweet on Monday.
Martinex went ahead to mention that "it resulted in gains of 2,830%, 566%, 6,400%, 99% and 487%, respectively, in 2012, 2013, 2015, 2019 and 2020" (the starts of previous bull cycles).
This metric turning positive directly corroborates Bitcoin's history of rising massively to the upside in the months before the next halving, expected to happen in April 2023.
One of Glassnode's co-founders recently revealed a few observations on the future course of Bitcoin (BTC) in a tweet.
The expert identified the $28,000 BTC price zone as a crucial "battleground" for investors in the tweet.
He claimed that people who are skeptical of Bitcoin are "expensively wrong," and that the Bitcoin market looks to be oversold, suggesting the probability of either hitting a bottom or seeing an upward trend soon.
Again…
A Senior Researcher at Glassnode tweeted again, this time focusing on a different part of Bitcoin's price action.
According to the researcher, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and Multiple-Variance (MVRV) indicator struck a value of 1.33 which coincides with Bitcoin's $30,000 range. It suggests that on average, new investors have made a profit of around 33% this year.
At the same time, the analyst mentioned that a price level of $24,400 would be required to return the SOPR-MVRV to a break-even value of 1.0 in the case of a more severe market decline.
Interestingly, historical data shows that a value of 1.0 has consistently served as a crucial support level in markets that are moving upward.
Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.