New research from CoinShares largely overstates fears that quantum computing could soon undermine Bitcoin’s security. The analysis finds that only a tiny fraction of Bitcoin’s supply is plausibly exposed.
Key Insights
- Less than 0.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply is realistically vulnerable to quantum-related attacks.
- Millions of fault-tolerant qubits will be required for breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography
- The current Bitcoin (BTC) address format reduces exposure by keeping public keys hidden until coins are spent.
Will quantum computing undermine Bitcoin’s security? The answer is a bold no. But how?
As per new research from CoinShares, the perceived threat is far less urgent than headlines suggest.
Christopher Bendiksen, Bitcoin research lead at CoinShares, states that quantum computing does not pose an imminent danger to Bitcoin’s network, market integrity, or monetary policy. He also added that a very small portion of the total Bitcoin supply is realistically exposed to quantum-related risks.
How Much Bitcoin Is Actually Vulnerable?
Bitcoin’s security relies on elliptic-curve cryptography—the secp256k1 standard. Theoretically, advanced quantum computers running algorithms such as Shor’s can only derive private keys from exposed public keys. This possibility has fueled speculation about large-scale wallet compromises.
However, this exposure is extremely limited in the BTC Network.
According to Bendiksen, of the roughly 19.7 million BTC in circulation, only around 10,200 BTC are held in address formats where public keys are clearly visible and which can be easily targeted by a hypothetical quantum attack. This represents well under 0.1% of total supply.
In addition, the older Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses, which are generally considered as the most vulnerable, have these coins well distributed across tens of thousands of wallets. Thus, unlocking most of these holdings would take centuries or longer, even under the optimistic assumptions.
In contrast, modern BTC addresses, like Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash (P2PKH) and Pay-to-Script-Hash (P2SH), keep public keys hidden until coins are spent. This design adds a significant security layer and reduces the chance of practical attack surface.
The Quantum Computing Reality Check
The fear surrounding BTC and quantum computing majorly depends on theoretical breakthroughs rather than current engineering reality.
Bendiksen believes that breaking Bitcoin’s cryptographic signatures would require millions of stable, fault-tolerant qubits. The current quantum systems operate with qubit counts that are of smaller magnitudes and lack the desired error correction needed for cryptographic attacks.
Even aggressive projections place cryptographically relevant quantum computers at least a decade away, and possibly much further. Short-term attack scenarios, such as mempool-level key extraction within minutes or hours, are considered infeasible for decades.
Also, the most important point to note is quantum algorithms cannot alter Bitcoin’s core properties. In addition, they cannot bypass proof-of-work, rewrite transaction history, or inflate supply beyond the 21 million BTC cap.
A Divided Bitcoin Community
The quantum debate has divided the crypto industry into different opinions, though most long-term Bitcoin advocates remain unconvinced that drastic action is required today.
Top crypto advocates like Michael Saylor and Adam Back believe that quantum risk is being overstated and that BTC has ample time to adapt if and when the technology matures.
Bendiksen remains very cautious against rushed protocol changes. He also warns that premature adoption of post-quantum cryptography could introduce new vulnerabilities, reduce decentralization, or rely on cryptographic schemes that have not yet been battle-tested at global scale.
“The greater risk,” Bendiksen argues, “is not quantum computing itself, but destabilizing Bitcoin’s neutrality and immutability through unnecessary intervention.”
But Why is Everyone Worried?
That said, quantum computing is no longer being ignored entirely.
Some investors and researchers believe this topic deserves a much more proactive approach. Charles Edwards describes quantum computing as a potential long-term existential risk, and the building market pressure will eventually force deeper technical exploration.
On the other hand, several blockchain ecosystems like Ethereum-related projects and major exchanges, have already begun researching post-quantum readiness. These efforts are aimed at preparation rather than immediate deployment.
Are Bitcoin Investors at Risk?
As per CoinShares’ conclusion, quantum computing does not represent a near-term threat to BTC’s security, supply, or market structure.
This is because the majority of Bitcoin remains protected by modern address standards. The hardware required to meaningfully attack the network does not yet exist. And even if quantum progress accelerates, BTC has time to respond.
For investors, the takeaway is straightforward. Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain intact, and quantum fears should be viewed as a long-horizon consideration, not a catalyst for panic.
Disclaimer: This article is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your capital. Readers are encouraged to perform their own research and seek guidance from a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Voice of Crypto does not endorse or promote any specific cryptocurrency, investment product, or trading strategy mentioned in this article.
